JJ

[BigBrother]

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UTG+1's bluff has to work close to 20% to be +EV. Given that fish will be showing down, essentially protecting the pot a high percentage of the time, I'm not convinced his move is winning $.

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With AQ I can understand your argument, but I don't think it's foolish to say this is a good play on villain's part if he holds something like 66. Part of this depends on UTG's WTSD.

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Agreed, both UTG's WTSD and bluffer's SD value are big factors here that contribute the % this semi-bluff will win the pot.

Stating the obvious, the disadvantage of 66 is it has only 2 outs (5%) to beat a caller that has a piece of the board, where AQ has potentially 7 (15%).

So 66 needs to fold out better hands a MUCH higher % of the time for the bluff bet to have any value (you can showdown against the crap hands and win anyway), whereas AQ never has to put a bet in on the end if it wiffs and only has to fold out better hands a lower % of the time to have value.

[callmedonnie]

I think this is a good time to bet/fold. I also think it is a great time for UTG+2 to check raise because if you lead and uberfish calls, gets an extra two bets in on his check raise. I think there is more value in a bet/fold than a check call the river.

[droolie]

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FWIW: UTG+1 here is shaping out to be more like 23/18/1.5, which is perfectly reasonable given the fact that the donk is on his right

At any rate, I bet because I'm not giving free cards, UTG called and UTG + 1 raised. I folded.

Rag came on the river, and it checked through.

UTG had 88 and UTG+1 had AQ.

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That'll learn the tricky SOB to waste 2BB's to try to fold a calling station!

Maybe this is hindsight but I think I would probably have checked behind here expecting to call a river bet by UTG+1. WIth the over card to our pair and an undercard pairing the board we a rebehind too often to bet and I just think we get C/Red a huge % here or at best called down by a weak K too much to think a bet provides much protection or value. The only hands a turn bet folds are probably hand with 4 outs or less but as we see here it opens us up for being bluffed out of the better hand which is in some ways more likely than an opponent hitting a four outer.