looking for the muck? can i find it? should i? - Page 3

DcifrThs · #21 06-16-2005, 05:35 PM

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I gave you several hands, and I'll add TT or even JJ with some players. Have you ever played with mike l? Even if some may be able to fold this hand, HE shouldn't. The guy never gets credit for a hand, which is great in these games. It must be the hair, since I don't either, apparently.

Edit: In fact, TT or T9 are two quite likely hands that he could have, and that you beat.

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haha, a call as thin as a strand of hair...or many of them. i like it.

-Barron

Turning Stone Pro · #22 06-16-2005, 05:36 PM

I think this is one of those situations, because of the size of the pot, that mucking and worrying about what he had for the next 8 hours is worth the 1 BB call. It's not like you don't have anything, either.

I'll treat you to Bellagio classic next year if you talk Enon out of posting the picture of me wiping the soda off the Bellagio floor.

TSP

andyfox · #23 06-16-2005, 05:37 PM

Yeah, 6-5 or even J-T. IMO, mike's in second place at best. Sb has been playing snug, now he makes a move on this draw-rich pot into so many other players? And still bets when an ace comes on the river?

Turning Stone Pro · #24 06-16-2005, 05:39 PM

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pot is quite large at that point and although 2pair is unlikely to win here, i err on the side of calling in these huge pots...although its probably SLIGHTLY negative ev if it is negative at all.

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Bruiser, I interpreted his gut to be saying call, not fold. FWIW, my gut (larger than most) says call.

TSP

Peter_rus · #25 06-16-2005, 05:44 PM

I disagree with this. What does SB know? He sees that Mike reraises pot of 16sb's on flop. Other players don't show more agressivity. Probably they have non-flush (or complete flush) good cards and planning to bet/reraise turn, but also probably that they are drawing to overcards/straight/heart. What does has Mike? Maybe Ah(794), maybe Qh9 and raise to see where he is, maybe T8h etc... Do we remember SB is loose so he tend to call more than needed and think less than needed?

But the flop is too scary so i just call and see a turn.

OMG the turn is perfect card for my K9 (TT,JJ also make some sense) but it's still dangerous - maybe someone slowplays something...

Ok, lets see what will happen with our K9 and if i check turn and there is no more bet/raises from anyone and only single bet from Mike i will c/r his ass to introduce a flush/set to push damn overcards out of here. The pot is big and i have some chances to have a best hand currently...

river: damn ace... thanks a bit it's not a heart. Anyway pot is to big to push one more bet in air and fold if raised. Maybe they have KK-JJ and muck here...

I guess there is around 9-10% of probability for Mike to be ahead of both. Though i can be wrong and influenced a bit with some pots i had online where in such pots were taken by TPBK when i fold TPGK refusing to overcall two guys on river.

DpR · #26 06-16-2005, 05:59 PM

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40-80 commerce. i have 9c7s in the cutoff and ive posted having come back from the restroom too late to buy the button. utg who has been playing snug raises, 3 people cold call, i call one more small bet, button cold calls, sb who has been playing snug calls, bb calls. lots of money lots of players. only pot like this all night.

the flop is 974 all hearts. checked to guy just on my right who bets, i raise, sb cold calls, utg cold calls. guy on my right calls. 4 of us.

turn is 8c. checked to me and i bet, sb pauses and checkraises, utg calls two cold, other guy folds, i call.

the river is As. sb bet, utg immediately calls. overcall or fold? is it close?

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Eww, I read the first reply that said to fold so maybe not all posters position. I think that is nuts. I think this is a super easy call.

Yes you are probably beat but you are getting 20-1!!! This is such an easy call. Yes, SB has been playing snug, but he had 6 people put in 2 bets infront of him, even a super rock would play almost any cards here. He really cant have 7,4 suited or 87 an? Not even a 5% chance? I'm not putting him ahead of me 95% of the time.

Also, even if I could be convinced this was a negative EV call - lets say I knew for sure I had a 3% chance of winning. I call anyway. If this is on of the 3/100 I would ahve won this pot it is going to screw the rest of my night as beat my self up for not call i little bet in teh biggest pot of the night on the river.

IMO a super easy call all factors considered.

ike · #27 06-16-2005, 06:26 PM

I call. I think he has overpair with a heart or Kh9x or whatever often enough to make it right.
However, I don't like this business about calling for your psychological welfare. Thats what fish do. If you can't fold the winner and continue playing well afterwards you've got something more important than close river decisions to be working on.

DpR · #28 06-16-2005, 06:40 PM

I disagree completely - only becasue you can never be CERTAIN what you chance of winnning is. There is no way anyone can guess within 5% what their true chance of winning a hand on the river is. We make estimates, but there is no way to KNOW the truth. I only need to win one out of 20. If I THINK I am good 1-3% here I should fold theoretically, but if this is one of those 3/100 times I would have won I am going to be thinking about whether or not my estimate was correct. Maybe it was, maybe it wasnt - but for sure it isnt accurate within a tiny range. You can pretend that you wouldn't let that affect you, but if that were the case for 2+2ers there wouldnt be any hand posts about river questions - we would all forget those hands since we were so sure of our chances.

DcifrThs · #29 06-16-2005, 06:47 PM

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I disagree with this. What does SB know? He sees that Mike reraises pot of 16sb's on flop. Other players don't show more agressivity. Probably they have non-flush (or complete flush) good cards and planning to bet/reraise turn, but also probably that they are drawing to overcards/straight/heart. What does has Mike? Maybe Ah(794), maybe Qh9 and raise to see where he is, maybe T8h etc... Do we remember SB is loose so he tend to call more than needed and think less than needed?

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but we know that :

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sb who has been playing snug calls

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-Barron

DcifrThs · #30 06-16-2005, 06:48 PM

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I think this is one of those situations, because of the size of the pot, that mucking and worrying about what he had for the next 8 hours is worth the 1 BB call. It's not like you don't have anything, either.

I'll treat you to Bellagio classic next year if you talk Enon out of posting the picture of me wiping the soda off the Bellagio floor.

TSP

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only if i can see the picture.

-Barron