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#21
11-20-2005, 10:51 PM
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Re: BRONCOS -13 OVER jets
[ QUOTE ]
while -13 might actually be a deal by gametime, I am more dumbfounded the closer kickoff looms that anybody would bet even play money on the broncos in this spot. So much for that statement.  [/ QUOTE ] 
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#23
11-20-2005, 11:02 PM
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Re: BRONCOS -13 OVER jets
uh, not really.
keep looking at plays in the NFL of -13 as 'paydays' and you will be broke. as usual, somebody bets a long term 46% winner, it cashes, and they think they were on the easy money side.
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#24
11-21-2005, 12:10 AM
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Re: BRONCOS -13 OVER jets
[ QUOTE ]
uh, not really. keep looking at plays in the NFL of -13 as 'paydays' and you will be broke. as usual, somebody bets a long term 46% winner, it cashes, and they think they were on the easy money side. [/ QUOTE ] This was actually my largest play of the day also. The fact that a team is a double digit favorite does not automatically make it a bad play. You just have to learn to pick your spots. As we saw today, 13 points isnt really that much when one team doesn't score.
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#25
11-21-2005, 12:21 AM
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Re: BRONCOS -13 OVER jets
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] uh, not really. keep looking at plays in the NFL of -13 as 'paydays' and you will be broke. as usual, somebody bets a long term 46% winner, it cashes, and they think they were on the easy money side. [/ QUOTE ] This was actually my largest play of the day also. The fact that a team is a double digit favorite does not automatically make it a bad play. [/ QUOTE ] and this is the perfect season to reinforce those beliefs.
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#26
11-21-2005, 12:51 AM
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Re: BRONCOS -13 OVER jets
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This is easy money. [/ QUOTE ] There is no easy money in the NFL. [/ QUOTE ] Every once in a while a great opportunity pops up. You get maybe 4 or 5 of these a season. This is one of them. [/ QUOTE ] Hard to believe that laying 13 is one of the best opportunities of the season, but good luck. I generally like very few lines. My three favorite lines of the season are ALL this week. But this isn't one of them. [/ QUOTE ] What have you got? [/ QUOTE ] Well, I realized that I cheated because I was counting Giants -4 for the 3+1 contest. The other two lines I loved were Jacksonville -4 (lost) and Chicago +3 (won). Fezzik had Chicago as his game of the year (4 weight) and commented, "This game is the poster child IMO separating losing NFL bettors and winning bettors...The line is, IMO, a nobrainer 'pick'. At 2.5 the Bears looked to have value, at +3 it's time to push a huge stack of chips into the pot." Congrats on your win on Denver.
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#27
11-21-2005, 01:29 AM
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Re: BRONCOS -13 OVER jets
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] uh, not really. keep looking at plays in the NFL of -13 as 'paydays' and you will be broke. as usual, somebody bets a long term 46% winner, it cashes, and they think they were on the easy money side. [/ QUOTE ] This was actually my largest play of the day also. The fact that a team is a double digit favorite does not automatically make it a bad play. You just have to learn to pick your spots. As we saw today, 13 points isnt really that much when one team doesn't score. [/ QUOTE ] Would you mind reading my post from earlier in this thread? Realize that, about 1 game a year has a line of -17 or more for the favorite. Even 17 point favorites only cover 13 about 60% of the time. I seriously doubt NYJ-DEN qualifies as one of the largest mismatches in the past 13 years in the NFL.
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#28
11-21-2005, 02:20 AM
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Re: BRONCOS -13 OVER jets
[ QUOTE ]
and this is the perfect season to reinforce those beliefs. [/ QUOTE ] Well you are obviously close-minded about this topic so I guess we will have to agree to disagree. Meanwhile I will continue to cash winners and you will continue to miss out. Good luck to you.
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#29
11-21-2005, 02:24 AM
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Re: BRONCOS -13 OVER jets
[ QUOTE ]
Would you mind reading my post from earlier in this thread? Realize that, about 1 game a year has a line of -17 or more for the favorite. Even 17 point favorites only cover 13 about 60% of the time. I seriously doubt NYJ-DEN qualifies as one of the largest mismatches in the past 13 years in the NFL. [/ QUOTE ] Ok I guess I misrepresented myself slightly. I stated that I thought that Denver was a good play but in doing so I mistakenly aligned myself with the OP's statement that this was "easy money". I agree with you that there is no easy money. But a bet that hits 60% is about as good as it gets in sports betting. So I guess you could say that this is as "easy money" as it will get.
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#30
11-21-2005, 02:30 AM
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Re: BRONCOS -13 OVER jets
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] and this is the perfect season to reinforce those beliefs. [/ QUOTE ] Well you are obviously close-minded about this topic so I guess we will have to agree to disagree. Meanwhile I will continue to cash winners and you will continue to miss out. Good luck to you. [/ QUOTE ] If you think sublime does not know about sports betting and is therefore not cashing out winners, you are wrong.
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