JJ facing utg push - Page 3

citanul · #21 10-23-2005, 12:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have 345 if I lose, not 500. I think the difference is significant.
I didn't have any read on bb.

[/ QUOTE ]

And youre with 2360 instead of 2000 so its basically the same thing.
I guarantee you that if you push in this spot you will make money in the long run.
Btw JJ is not the worst hand Im calling here with.

[/ QUOTE ]

val,

while i of course agree with your later analysis "I guarantee you that if you push in this spot you will make money in the long run. Btw JJ is not the worst hand Im calling here with."

500 v 345 is not the same as 2000 v 2360 (eh, or maybe it's close, icm wise). chips worth more when you have fewer and all that jazz. also, 500 is just enough to make someone fold at 150 blinds, whereas 345 is not usually.

c

Uppercut · #22 10-23-2005, 03:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody considers folding this?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have 8BB left and you are seriously considering folding the 4th best starting hand in poker to a desperation all-in shove by an UTG short-stack that you have covered? Is that about right? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

TheNoodleMan · #23 10-23-2005, 04:04 PM

Push, it is not even close.

bigt439 · #24 10-23-2005, 05:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I push this and it's not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

And there is a lot of flawed logic in this thread from the OP. Unfortunately, I don't really have the time right now to type it out, but this is a very easy call.

lastchance · #25 10-23-2005, 06:27 PM

If the other guy is pushing 66+, AT+, this is a very easy call. There's almost no way you can have him on a range tighter than that.

You're 60+% to win this hand at least. I don't see how you can possibly pass that up.

#26 10-23-2005, 07:40 PM

Ok, I obviously seem to be missing something; maybe someone can clue me in.

*If my win expectancy vs. his range here is 60% it's an obvious call.

*If my win expectancy is 50% it's a clear fold.

At what point does it become gray area?

lastchance · #27 10-23-2005, 07:45 PM

53-54%, I'd think.

Also note, I said you were at least 60%. 66+, AT+ may be too tight of a range, because you're way ahead here.

tigerite · #28 10-23-2005, 07:54 PM

I didn't even bother with ICM, this is just a natural call. (Well, push to isolate).