this hand made no sense; i am a fish

Chris, i like your blog. What's the 900 in NT for? Waiting for the right bonus? I'm at 1/2 myself now. Hope to not have to go back to .50.

[DCWildcat]

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But you plan to call anyway with a 6 1/2 out draw for nine bets! If you bet and plan to fold the turn anyway, why not check and let UTG tell you that you're beat, and avoid paying off three BBs later with second best. UTG might not reraise with something like T9.

What am I missing here?

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I wouldn't call this a "bet, planning to fold" situation. Our hand is defined a lot on the turn. If an undercard comes, another bet could be in order.

I like betting for all the reasons we normally favor betting when we could call. It gives us the initiative. It gives us fold equity. Hell, someone might fold right now. It's probably for value because we probably have an equity edge. C/C, C/F opens us up to billions of bluffs.

have to call...UTG most likely has J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

hmm... thanks for all the advice

those putting UTG on the case 9 i would question though, up until the river raise i think his range includes any 5, any pp (most likely <9), and even ocs for aggressive players.

for the record he flipped JKo at the end for K high.

[shant]

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Do you also fold 78s or 89s in this situation?

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Hands like that play best in unraised, multiway pots. This one is neither. Really tighten up in a raised pot even if you have position.

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Those hands play fine in multiway raised pots. I don't agree with the preflop call in this hand though.

[numeri]

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those putting UTG on the case 9 i would question though, up until the river raise i think his range includes any 5, any pp (most likely <9), and even ocs for aggressive players.

for the record he flipped JKo at the end for K high.

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Why would UTG bet a 5 into the PFR? And exactly what 5 are we talking about? I'm assuming you mean A5 or 55, yes? And why can't you have reads just because it's UB? You don't need stats for reads. You have a read now, right?

P.S. Fold preflop. Given you didn't, check/call the flop since you can't C/R the PFR. C/C the turn. River is fine.

[Aaron W.]

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no reads cause its ub.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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those putting UTG on the case 9 i would question though, up until the river raise i think his range includes any 5, any pp (most likely <9), and even ocs for aggressive players.

for the record he flipped JKo at the end for K high.

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Why would UTG bet a 5 into the PFR? And exactly what 5 are we talking about? I'm assuming you mean A5 or 55, yes? And why can't you have reads just because it's UB? You don't need stats for reads. You have a read now, right?

P.S. Fold preflop. Given you didn't, check/call the flop since you can't C/R the PFR. C/C the turn. River is fine.

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i have to head off now, will bbl

but on the 5 comment, im talking about as POSSIBILITIES (not all weighted evenly):
54 56 57 58s 5K 5Qs A5....

any draw is betting that for information from the pfr and to gain position on the field by folding the pfr on the flop or turn =/


all im saying is that at this level, from preflop and flop actions ALONE, UTG's hand range at 6m is very wide.

we can narrow it down a bit on the turn to say that he doesnt have a monster (set/2P) or we would hear from him here.

we only really need to start worrying at the river imo, but even then at that point there is only one 9 in the deck.

[Aaron_]

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I wouldn't call this a "bet, planning to fold" situation. Our hand is defined a lot on the turn. If an undercard comes, another bet could be in order.

I like betting for all the reasons we normally favor betting when we could call. It gives us the initiative. It gives us fold equity. Hell, someone might fold right now. It's probably for value because we probably have an equity edge. C/C, C/F opens us up to billions of bluffs.

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I'm changing my line guys [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I think it's clear that you don't have the equity to make a value bet on the flop. Three players are drawing out (if they're not already ahead) on a vulnerable hand with a weak kicker and no redraws. You must protect! Checking with the intention of raising a bet from the PF aggressor is right for a couple of reasons:

1. Again, your hand is vulnerable to many weak draws. You don't have enough equity to make a value bet.

2. The pot is large and betting out does not protect your hand. Getting only 5.5 to 1 after your successful check-raise, almost any draw that's trying to catch up on the turn is not getting odds to call. By betting out, you give weak draws a PROFITABLE chance to suck out on you. You're not getting near the fold equity you do when betting out as you do when check-raising. You are, in fact, contributing money to these weak draws.

3. Checking gives players between you and the PF aggressor a chance to let you know that you're behind. Many hands beat you here - TPMK is no cinche!

4. If you do bet out on the flop, you're likely to go 3-handed to the turn, and sometimes 4-handed. You force yourself to guess at whether or not the turn improved any one of 2 or 3 players' hands. The "aggression" didn't really buy you anything. If you're C/R worked, however, you can more accurately decide if the turn improved the PF raiser (since you can limit what hands he's on) and go from there.

The reason that I argue a fold on the flop is because this new information suggests that you are behind and are no longer getting odds to call. I'm certainly not saying you should always c/c, c/f TP, but "always bet out with TP" is just as simplistic and will lose you money just the same. There is a lot of information that needs to be evaluated before making a sound poker decision.

Eskimo: I'm happy to see you got some money out of a maniac. Couldn't have said the same for myself, though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

oh btw, given utg's perceived hand range for pfr, why would he be more likely to be betting a 5 than a 9 or vice versa? what hands are there in pfr's range that would be affected by the difference between a 5 and a 9? or a 3 for that matter?

its highly doubtful that pfr raises preflop with a better 9.