Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
I did it on Eastbay's Program and it doesn't allow for the BB to call. I don't think the BB will call anywhere near 50% of the time, if you call. He's gonna just hope you bust out. Given that he will have a very tight calling range, IMO, I don't think his calls are going to help you.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I meant when you fold, when I think his call is near guaranteed. Then assuming the initial pusher pushes with any two, half the time SB busts, leaving you with ~29% ICM equity, and half the time the SB doubles up, leaving you with ~21% ICM equity. So on average you have about 25% when you fold.

[microbet]

If you really want to deeply analyze the hand you can go into this, but it's not really very close at all.

First off, UTG may very well not push with any two. He's pushing into the very small stack's BB and should know he is fairly likely to get called.

I think if Raptor holds AKs or TT-QQ it will be much more debatable.

[curtains]

Your hand just isnt good enough to call off all your chips on the bubble when both stacks are shorter than you and are desperate. I'm sure you aren't going to win the showdown the % of times you need to to make this call correct.

[tminus]

easy call for the following reasons:
- he's been pushing alot so i think there's a good chance that he's got a questionable hand
- AQo is premium shorthanded and I cant afford to wait around in hopes of a better hand than this while the shorties battle it out
- There's 1500 chips in the pot which will double me up
- His stack is triple mine and i want first..not second.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I think if Raptor holds AKs or TT-QQ it will be much more debatable.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT-QQ I understand, but what makes AKs so much better than AQs against a broad range of pushed hands? (And yes, I realize the hand in question is AQo, but you make it sound like it's not debatable with AQs.) If you say he'll push any K but not any Q, then I can see it, maybe.

[microbet]

When I voted and made my earlier replys I didn't realize that your M was 3.

[tminus]

alright...i admit it, i was trying to be cool and make you guys like me more

( i was actually the middle of editing it )

[microbet]

All right, you got me. AKs sucks arse too. I think the debate should really be over QQ, but some might debate JJ or even KK.

[lastchance]

I think QQ is a call, KK is a call.

JJ or TT/AKs are probably my cutoff.

[microbet]

I also think QQ is good. I would probably find JJ too hard to fold in real life, but I don't think it is good enough.