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#21
07-26-2005, 12:18 PM
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
[ QUOTE ]
OK, maybe my brain's not working right today. BB is getting 1.6 to 1 odds, right? Maybe it's a leak but I'm not calling with any two even from a very aggressive player with those odds. 3 bb still has a decent amount of fold equity when the chip leader only has 10bb. If my math is off, I apologize and i'll rethink the situation. [/ QUOTE ] 990 to win 1440 isn't 1.6 to 1. He will call with quite a wide range. No, not any two, but certainly a lot more hands than would make this move +EV, IMO. Dunno where you got 1590 and 1190 from, it's 1440, his original stack, plus the SB of 150.. 
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#22
07-26-2005, 12:19 PM
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
[ QUOTE ]
Of course the villian is not calling any 2 here. They should have a wide range, but to even discuss the idea that the BB will call with any 2 cards is absurd. Players at this level fold all the time when they are obviously pot committed and that's not even the case here. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed, but I still fold from the SB here. The other thing is that players at this level are also far more likely to spite call after you pushed the last two. What would you do here as the SB?
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#23
07-26-2005, 12:27 PM
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
BB can win 1290 from the hero. BB has posted 300. He risks his remaining 990 if he calls.
1290+300=1590, and 1590/990 is 1.606. Tigerite, how is this not 1.6 to 1? Maulik's calculations in this thread are way off. Peace, KennyBanya
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#24
07-26-2005, 12:29 PM
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
Where does the SB of 150 go then?!
He wins his original stack before the BB, of 1290, plus the SB, of 150. This is 1440. So it is basically (1440 + 990)/1440, which is 1.6875. You win the 1440 _and_ get your 990 back.
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#26
07-26-2005, 12:36 PM
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
[ QUOTE ]
BB can win 1290 from the hero. BB has posted 300. He risks his remaining 990 if he calls. 1290+300=1590, and 1590/990 is 1.606. Tigerite, how is this not 1.6 to 1? Maulik's calculations in this thread are way off. Peace, KennyBanya [/ QUOTE ] Yes he is getting 1.6:1 and I fold.
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#28
07-26-2005, 12:51 PM
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
FWIW, ICM says even if BB will call with top 70% of hands, it is still slightly +EV to push. At 75% it becomes negative. If he'll only call with top 50% of hands this is a must-push.
This is a $33 buy-in or below. With 4 players left at 300/600 it looks like you've got a bunch of tighties. I think BB will fold here more often than some of you think.
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#29
07-26-2005, 01:00 PM
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
My ICM calculation says something much different than yours. (Meaning that if called 70% of the time, you are losing a boatload of money by pushing T3o here)
My numbers say that this is the tightest range where you still show a very small profit: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q8o+,Q4s+,J9o+,J8s+,T9s I suspect that most of the time they will be tighter than this, but okay your poor image whilst combined with their stack size is a problem.
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#30
07-26-2005, 03:52 PM
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
[ QUOTE ]
My ICM calculation says something much different than yours. (Meaning that if called 70% of the time, you are losing a boatload of money by pushing T3o here) My numbers say that this is the tightest range where you still show a very small profit: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q8o+,Q4s+,J9o+,J8s+,T9s I suspect that most of the time they will be tighter than this, but okay your poor image whilst combined with their stack size is a problem. [/ QUOTE ] Are using eastbay's proggy? I just ran it again. At 70% calling range( 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T5o+,T2s+,96o+,94s+,87o,85s+,7 5s+) I get + 0.3%.
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