Jackpot Jay's Prop Bet

[fnurt]

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First of all, I love how people are responding to this like it is an obvious call. Lets do some math before we jump to any conclusions. There are 7 world series between now and then, so there are 63 final table seats. Lets be conservative and say that only 5,000 people play on the main event every year.

For a second lets assume that the 10 pros are just as likely as the field to make the final table. In that case the probability that none of the ten pros makes the final table is (4990*4989*4988*4987*4986*4985*4984*4983*4982) / (5000^9) = 0.975. The probability of this happening 7 years in a row is (.975)^7 = 0.838.

Onviously in order for the bet against Jackpot Jay to be correct, this number has to be lower than .5. The key variable to play with is the probability of those pros making the final table. If we assume that the pros are twice as likely to make the final table, then the probability of none of them making a final table is still .738. If the probability of them making the final table is three times as likely, the probability of none of them making the final table is still .669. Four times: 0.573.

So anyone who thinks betting against Jay is a good bet needs to believe that those pros are greater than 4 times more likely to make a final table than an average player. Especially considering that fields may get bigger and that some of the pros you pick now may die, not play, be in jail, etc., I'll take Jay's side of the bet.

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Very good analysis, and we could probably come up with several reasons why the odds are even tougher. First, the main event is only getting larger, unless they raise the entry fee; second, someone on the list could easily drop out of poker between now and 2012. I'm sure we could come up with others.

I think it's likely Jay did at least some math before he made this offer. I wonder how many of the people who leaped at it did the same.

[benkahuna]

Howard Lederer told press that he thought Phil Ivey's fairest parlay would be 500:1 to win the main event this year and that he had the best chance. The means an over 10:1 favorite.
He didn't seem as confident in anyone else though. Howard seemed to think a number of players were between 5:1 and 8:1.

Based on what he told the press, I think Howard may take this bet (obviously uncertainty being size of future fields).

More interesting thought. I wonder which players he chooses. Besides obviously Ivey.

[mtdurham]

One element of the bet that certainly helps Jay's chances:

Most of the pros arent trying to simply make the final table. You could easily have someone "pull an Ivey"... in other words, a pro that could fairly easily coast into the final table will be overly aggressive because they are actually trying to win the tournament rather than simply move up the ladder

[DrunkIrish05]

[ QUOTE ]
One element of the bet that certainly helps Jay's chances:

Most of the pros arent trying to simply make the final table. You could easily have someone "pull an Ivey"... in other words, a pro that could fairly easily coast into the final table will be overly aggressive because they are actually trying to win the tournament rather than simply move up the ladder

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Yeah you're completely right here, Ivey (or any pro) could just coast to the final table, they just don't because they want to have enough chips when they make it there to actually win.

[Rosie5]

If i took this bet when he proposed it I would've won it already by choosing matusow. there was a 2+2 thread about this before this year's main event and I thought to myself that he was a staple

/not good at math, Just sayin

Jordan your not doing the math right, if u have 30 people there is a 70 percent chance two will have b-day on the same day. Somebody else can chime in with the math, but i promise u did it wrong

Sorry i only read the first part of your post, and my reading comprehension is evidently lacking tonite