SSHE p.148: Continuing with marginal hands

[MaxPower]

gmanko,

When you raise and knock out those random hands, your pot equity goes up dramatically. It doesn't have to work everytime, but if it works some of the time it will be profitable.

Also, in every example you tested your opponent has you dominated or has a great draw. That is not going to be the case most of the time.

Ed Miller is certainly correct in this example. Your suggestion to fold the flop is just horrible.

[rmarotti]

And we see demonstrated in bright vibrant colors why hot/cold simulations are not always very helpful.

[ErrantNight]

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It's quite likely that the bettor reraises, or that someone in the middle was waiting to checkraise and will now reraise,

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this isn't true.

it's possible that both these things could happen... and if you're up against mad laggy opposition sure, you should fear this more... but in general... this is not the case.

the point of the raise is that you're more likely to fold people then run into check/3-bets, that the button is auto-betting and quite likely doesn't have a piece of this flop, and therefore that you'll be headsup with the better hand and at least a reasonable, if not great, draw.

[MaxPower]

Welcome to the forum Kyle.

I think you should read the following two articles:

Discussing Small Stakes Holdem: Part 1 by Jim Brier

Responding to Jim Brier by Ed Miller

[gmanko]

I agree that computer simulations don't show everything since they assume that you will stay until the end, but that is part of my point. The best-case scenario of 5 random hands gives you an edge only if you stay to the end. Even if you luck out and hit your hand, what happens if there is a possible straight and flush, or a 4 straight, or a 4 flush on the river and you get bet off your hand?

I am going to try to deal out some hands tonight and see what happens in real game situations.

Also, a ten doesn't have to 3-bet you, in a loose passive game as described they could just call the raise (and often do).

As for the possible hands against you, with 5 opponents it is very likely (practically certain) that someone has EITHER a ten, OR a better 7 OR a flush draw OR a 2-way straight draw. Even if you are taking money from some of your opponents you are almost definitely giving it to someone else. Plus you don't have proper odds on your raise.

As for the claim that this is as bad as capping with 72o, that may have been going too far, but thinking back on it you are putting in 4 small bets before the flop (2 big bets). On the flop the pot will be as bit as it was in the SSHE example. If you make 2 pair or better without the other hands improving you almost definitely will get unlimited action, and if you are in a game with no cap heads-up you could bust him if the pair of kings takes the hint. Otherwise you will definitely fold (unless you believe in raising marginal hands for value when you are beat, as in the example).

Compare this to the hand being discussed, at the point you have to act on the flop you have to put in one big bet already if you raise, and even then you are completely unsure of the value of your hand. Do you check the turn if you miss and give a flush draw a free card? If you hit the 8 of clubs, do you bet it? If you don't improve on the river do you call a bet?

Each event is unlikely in itself, but if you are in a burning restaurant eating a piece of tainted chicken, then start choking on a bone, your chances of surviving any one of them is pretty decent, but not if they happen together. This is that hand.

[gmanko]

RAKE!!!!! RAKE!!!!!!

I forgot to even think about rake effects here.
I wonder if anyone ever figured out the actual EV/hand for this example. It may be ones of those examples where theoretically its a good play under the assumptions given (basically, if none of your opponents has even a draw and the preflop raiser is bluffing), then raising is a good play. If only I could just get my "peek" button to work<g>.

This is definitely a fold. If a call would close out the betting I would do it. If I had a backdoor flush draw I would do it (if the T were diamonds instead of hearts).

Plus, there are so many mistakes that your opponents can make you make here if you end up with a second best hand that I would dump this in a second.

[jordanx]

You need to play according to the situation you're in (which, btw, the games you describe are exactly like live small stakes games).

In the hand example given, if raising won't eliminate players, possibly buy you a free turn card or you strongly suspect that two pair will not win you this pot, then you should fold.

There are players who are aggressive for the sake of being aggressive. Maniacs. And you'll find one or two at a table from time to time. But rarely will everyone at the table be a maniac.

You need to factor your opponents into every desicions, but if you write off the concept of protecting your hand or raising the flop for info or free cards, then your game will suffer.

[PuckNPoker]

The pot is rather large, but I think this is a muck with a raise in front of you. You have to discount your 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] out, and I think any "made" hand you have has a lot of redraws to it. These type of hands are very difficult, I think if that 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] was a 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or just a non-club I'd have a lot better time of it. I dont think mucking is a horrible play here but maybe im weak-tight.

[bernie]

This is an easy raise in this spot.

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If I think unimproved sevens might be good, I'm stuck calling a reraise, calling the turn, and calling the river, even if my hand doesn't improve.

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Isn't this much better to do with fewer opponents? You're trying to get it HU. Which limits your losses quite a bit than if it were multiway. If you're hand is better than the others holding overcards, knock them out. Don't give them odds to call. What is a safe card for you on the turn? Not many. Lessen the chances.

It also can make the hand easier to play.

Also, if there is significant action behind you, be prepared to possibly fold. (unless it is HU) A double c/r is a very strong move if another player gets active.

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I'd call, or maybe even fold if I think a checkraise on my left is likely.


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If you really think a c/r is coming, you fold. In this situation, 'you' want to be the one checkraising. Not waiting for someone else to do it for you.

Ed explains this concept very well. I'd suggest rereading it.

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I've only been playing poker for about three months, but I've been steadily winning by playing weak-tight at 2/4 and 3/6 tables full of players even worse than me, and in fact making a modest living at it.

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This is a small sample size. 3 whole months? At least you're honest about it.

b