Super Tuesday Hand - JJ against chip leader with 15 left - Page 3

Lloyd · #21 10-12-2005, 01:44 PM

I'm still not convinced it's an auto push although I think pushing is probably correct. However, I called. I'd be lying if I said that somehow the fact that I (as I'm sure all of you) have been burned so many times with JJ that it improperly influenced my decision. I've edited the hand above to reflect the flop action.

EverettKings · #22 10-12-2005, 01:50 PM

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I'm pushing this and expecting to be called with the best hand.

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I hope you mean preflop. Which I would agree with. Too many ugly overs to fall and you don't know where you're at. So much already in the pot. Jam it in.

But what maniac raises in EP preflop and checks the flop to you and then calls your all in with a worse hand? I can't think of two cards that play it like that. That flop action terrifies me. I'm probably done here, save seeing a miracle J on the turn.

Everett

Punker · #23 10-12-2005, 02:05 PM

I'd put him on a fairly good hand, and bet out about 10,000, with the intent of putting no more chips in the pot. If he has A-rag, 10K is enough to fold him, no need to jam on in for 2x pot. The raise PF UTG + check flop combination stinks of either a monster or a piece of trash, so there's no need to invest more than necessary. In limit hold'em terms, you'd be risking 41K to win 24K, when you really only need to risk about 10K to win that 24K.

31K is still enough to play in a no-ante tournament with blinds at 2K-4K. You don't have to rush in and blast your whole stack away into aces.

KingMedicine · #24 10-12-2005, 02:09 PM

here is why i DONT like pushing here and prefer a cold call:

Hero's stack IS healthy enough to cold call and try to see a flop - even if he has to fold to a push by a MP or LP player. before the call, hero has 50k. 41k after the call. if he has to fold without seeing the flop, he'll have 35k left after losing his blinds (which may or may not happen) - this means hero can still grab the blinds with his push(es), it just means that at least 1-2 pushes will be imparative over the next 6-7 hands.

granted the flop play isnt going to be easy in most cases and the hero will have to proceed with massive caution. when the flop comes QQ8 (a very good flop for hero), he needs to get his chips in there and hope he's not facing AA or KK or some weak hand with a Q or 88. AA or KK would have called his pf push anyway. He mightve been able to get a hand like KQ or QJ to fold, but hero feels like villian is calling many pushes by him here.

i coldcall the 9k and proceed with caution.
i think a slight case could be made for folding pf as well and id be interested in thoughts on that.

illegit · #25 10-12-2005, 02:11 PM

Flop: Odd that he would check this flop after raising PF, especially if he's been kind of aggro. Worrisome. However that's a good flop for JJ. AQ, KQ 88 caught up to you and is a possibility, as are AA-KK. But AK, and TT-99, 77 could be out there too, but I'm not sure why any of these hands would check this flop after raising preflop. All those hands would probably bet. This is a WA/WB. Man i sure wish i had pushed preflop and didn't need to be thinking about what to do here. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

#26 10-12-2005, 02:17 PM

I think you're seeing monsters under the bed, Lloyd. Preflop is an easy push.

Lloyd · #27 10-12-2005, 02:19 PM

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But AK, and TT-99, 77 could be out there too, but I'm not sure why any of these hands would check this flop after raising preflop.

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Part of my pre-flop thinking, by cold calling am I representing a strong hand. I think so. I'm often worried about people calling off 20% of their stack pre-flop. I've been pretty tight and if he thinks I have a big hand I could see him check-folding something like 77 or AK.

Lloyd · #28 10-12-2005, 02:28 PM

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I think you're seeing monsters under the bed, Lloyd. Preflop is an easy push.

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Let me be clear, I'm not too worried about AA or KK. I think I'll pretty much lose my stack to those hands one way or another. Maybe less likely to KK (if he can fold to an Ace high flop). Calling has some merit if you think the chance he has AK-AQ, KQ is greater than the chance that he has a smaller pair or an over and under card AND will call your pre-flop push. And like I said, I do think he has some understanding of Gap.

Now, you can easily make an argument that I want to get my chips in with a small advantage having JJ vs. something like AK, but at the time I didn't want a coin flip even if it would land on my side more often than not. I have enough chips even if I call and fold on the flop to still have a good chance to make the final table. And I'm confident in my ability to pick up some blinds and outplay most of my opponents (particularly those guys named AceHigh and Cfer [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]).

Lloyd · #29 10-12-2005, 02:40 PM

Hey KM,

You were watching him for quite some time. What range of hands do you think he'd be making that raise with, and within that range what do you think he calls a pre-flop push with?

Thanks!

adanthar · #30 10-12-2005, 02:47 PM

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I'm pushing this and expecting to be called with the best hand.

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I hope you mean preflop.

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Yeah, Lloyd edited his post way after mine. Of course you have to push preflop.

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Now, you can easily make an argument that I want to get my chips in with a small advantage having JJ vs. something like AK, but at the time I didn't want a coin flip even if it would land on my side more often than not.

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Come on man, *especially* if you thought he folds a large percentage of the time, it's not about the flip at all. You push just to pick up the 35%!

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On that flop...I'm betting 16K, and if called or CR'd, I'm done with the hand, half of my stack or no. <font color="white"> since he obviously has QT suited </font>