#21
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
The chances of having a 10 buyin drop over 300 is pretty close to 100%, if not 100%. [/ QUOTE ] It depends on which question you are asking - having a 10 buyin drop during the course of 300 SNG's is one thing (which the 15% ROI player has about a 95% chance of happening) but being down 10 or more buyins after 300 SNG's is a different question. My App doesn't really give you results like that without doing a little work so first you need to convert -10 over 300 to an ROI so that would be about -3%. The chance of this 15% ROI player getting -3% ROI or worse over 300 SNG's is about 2.5%. rvg |
#22
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The chances of having a 10 buyin drop over 300 is pretty close to 100%, if not 100%. [/ QUOTE ] It depends on which question you are asking - having a 10 buyin drop during the course of 300 SNG's is one thing (which the 15% ROI player has about a 95% chance of happening) but being down 10 or more buyins after 300 SNG's is a different question. My App doesn't really give you results like that without doing a little work so first you need to convert -10 over 300 to an ROI so that would be about -3%. The chance of this 15% ROI player getting -3% ROI or worse over 300 SNG's is about 2.5%. rvg [/ QUOTE ] My comment was referring to playing over an infinite sample, which is how you should be viewing your poker results, not in self-selected samples. |
#23
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
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- having a 10 buyin drop during the course of 300 SNG's is one thing (which the 15% ROI player has about a 95% chance of happening) [/ QUOTE ] ...just so the OP sees this. This looks much more accurate than the 1% suggested. I'm old and slow. I have to be honest, I have a tough time figuring out those columns myself. |
#24
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
Okay here'sa listle durnkina analsysis.
I just might be the best 22er in the wrold. And I've had a 42 byuhin OTM streak. So the chances that you could drop 10 guyins over 100 games? 110%. Like...ish is guarantedd to happen. So get over the shti, bdrin k a six pakck, and move on with your uckignf life. |
#25
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
Okay here'sa listle durnkina analsysis. I just might be the best 22er in the wrold. And I've had a 42 byuhin OTM streak. So the chances that you could drop 10 guyins over 100 games? 110%. Like...ish is guarantedd to happen. So get over the shti, bdrin k a six pakck, and move on with your uckignf life. [/ QUOTE ] Drunken, philosophical pergesu is one of my favorites. |
#26
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Re: Odds of a major downswing?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] - having a 10 buyin drop during the course of 300 SNG's is one thing (which the 15% ROI player has about a 95% chance of happening) [/ QUOTE ] ...just so the OP sees this. This looks much more accurate than the 1% suggested. I'm old and slow. I have to be honest, I have a tough time figuring out those columns myself. [/ QUOTE ] Actually Blue Feet, you were right. The OP wanted to know the percent chance that a "true" 15% ROI player would drop 11 or more buyins over a set of 300 SNG's and that works out to about 2.5%. Here are the chance that a 15% player (with a finish distribution of 12.5/13/12.5) will lose money over various quantities of SNG's: 50 25% 100 16% 500 1.1% 1000 < 0.1% a 10% ROI player (12/12/12.5) 50 32% 100 24% 500 6.2% 1000 1.4% a 20% ROI player (13.4/13/13) 50 19% 100 10% 500 0.2% 1000 almost 0... over 10K simulations the worst result over 1000 SNG's for a true 20% ROI player was +2% ROI. rvg |
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