This hand has people talking

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Not raising the flop is awful:

1. You have MPTK on a somewhat difficult board to hit. There are flush and straight draws on board. I don't buy Dids's argument that the donk bet is usually at least a queen. The chance of having the best hand is decent.

2. Nothing very special happened but the final pot reached 17 BB. I have very little sympathy for helping people with a few outs stay in this pot.

3. You have 14 outs to aces up or better plus a possible best hand. Your pot equity is well over 50%. Compared with a typical 9-out flush draw the immediate value equation is much more favorable for raising as opposed to playing for overcalls.

4. The chance that CO has pocket second pair is fairly large. If you call he is unlikely to fold. If you raise there is a fair chance he will fold, especially if his pair is only intermediate. Remember, no reads were provided. Probably half the players in this game are reasonable players (TAG, tight/passive, etc.). Not everyone is always willing to call multiple bets to draw to two outs. Missing a chance to fold a better hand in a big pot is one of the worst mistakes you can make.

[/ QUOTE ]

if your equity is over 50% as you say, letting the others overcall on the flop is not nearly the disaster that you seem to be making it out to be. or am i missing something?

[B Dids]

If I thought my 4 was best, you might be right. However, my read/impression was that is wasn't, so let's proceed that way. Arguing the underlying assumptions is pointless, because I can't possibly express all the reaons that I put people on hands and why I think they have what I think they have. The point is "if I assume my 4 isn't good, but the fact that I have middle-ish pair gives me more outs, how do I proceed".

Also- your "the pot ended up big" as an argument for raising is kinda silly. It ended up big because three people had good hands, and we only know that one of the 4 really does on the flop. The button had a hand here, but he just as easily has nothing.

[brazilio]

We've got two concerns here. What the initial bettor has, and what the later field has. I don't see what pushing out mid pairs that'd call the flop will accomplish because I see us initially being ahead almost never when the flop gets bet like that, and protecting a pair of 4s when our drawing equity is so high but all other non-drawing cards are dangerous seems like a mistake.

Initially I was thinking raising the flop was a good idea, but I'm not sure it really is, and from discussions with B_Dids he did not expect coldcalling to happen on the flop.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
If I thought my 4 was best, you might be right. However, my read/impression was that is wasn't, so let's proceed that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if you don't think it's best, you raise it in this large pot because you might fold out slightly better hands, which buys you more equity.

[krishanleong]

I don't know if I'm being results oriented but I really hate the flop cap. I think it just completely robs you both when you hit on the turn and when you miss. I mean assuming you have 50% equity, why go for 50% of small bets when you can likely get 100% of big bets. Ugg.

I fold preflop. I definitely don't raise the flop for reasons well outlined by SThief.

Krishan

[Grisgra]

Preflop, I'm fine with the limp, esp. if you think your opponents would coldcall with crappy aces anyway. If a raise would chase out A7o, A8o behind you, then there's more of a case for raising, obviously,

Flop, raising would be HORRIBLE. BAD BAD BAD. Multiway pot, you have a monster draw, and you're probably way behind. And you have no need to chase out other aces, as you already have a piece. I'm not fond of the cap, either, as you might chase someone out that would pay you for your draw and (perhaps more importantly) take away your opportunity for a checkraise if you hit. But it's not that bad.

But I think raising the flop here would have been pretty bad. I'm confident you're behind.

[cold_cash]

I don't think raising the flop would be nearly as bad as you think it would be. (Although I likely would have called also I think it's closer. Stella and Thief both had some good points.)

Also, it's hard to have a "monster draw" and be "way behind".

Nice hand though Dids.

[B Dids]

I think vs. players like this, a cap hides my hand to some extent. My semi-read as that they were pretty passive, so I wouldn't be surprised to wiff on a c/r if a flush card falls and/or not get paid off by both of them there. I think the biggest concern is that if I don't hit on the turn, I'm kinda let with my johnson in my hand and somewhat obligated to bet, which feels icky.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Also- your "the pot ended up big" as an argument for raising is kinda silly.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, it's not. The pot ended at 17 BB despite the fact that there were no raises on the big streets. The pot is already 5.5 BB after you call the flop and all the factors are present for rapid growth:

1. Four players
2. Lead bet from first position toward a PFR
3. Hero's plan to trap the field with a call-raise
4. Players tied in by the pot size

This is going to be a big pot almost all of the time and a huge pot quite often. 10 BB is about the minimum you can expect and 20 BB would not be very surprising. I'd guess that 14 BB is about average.

This is a very common error that I see in these forums. Failure to recognize that the implied odds on this type of flop are about triple the pot odds. If this bet reaches the button unraised he can correctly call with practically anything because he is getting about 30-1 to close.

These implied odds are why I'm screaming that you must raise here.

1. Even a very small improvement in your winning chances is a lot of money on a 14 BB pot.

2. It's not as easy to get rid of people as you seem to think. Big pot plus loose game equals open wallets. Even if you are never good unimproved it could easily be +EV to raise because your pot equity is so high. The higher your pot equity to more the value equation favors raising over playing for overcalls.

If you raise and only two players call that is still slightly more immediate EV than everyone calling the flop.

If you raise and get heads up that is only -1 SB immediate EV versus everyone calling the flop. Of course by capturing the button you may recover that money in several ways.

If you raise, get coldcalled twice, 3-bet by UTG, and you cap with everyone calling again, that is +3 SB immediate EV versus everyone calling.

Value raising big pots isn't just about protection. It's about charging people the maximum when they are most willing to pay for weak holdings.

[ QUOTE ]
If I thought my 4 was best, you might be right. However, my read/impression was that is wasn't, so let's proceed that way.

[/ QUOTE ]
You originally posted that you have no specific read on any player. You're MPTK is currently ahead of over 80% of all possible starting hands. The board provides flush and straight draws that your opponents might be betting as well as lower pairs.

One of the important issues here is that a "read/impression" should not be treated as a certain fact. A 25% chance of being ahead here makes a huge difference in favor of raising. The lesser reason is that raising sometimes wins or saves the pot. The big reason is that the extra pot equity of sometimes being good adds a tremendous amout of value to your raise compared to playing for overcalls.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a very common error that I see in these forums. Failure to recognize that the implied odds on this type of flop are about triple the pot odds. If this bet reaches the button unraised he can correctly call with practically anything because he is getting about 30-1 to close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain this to me because it seems to me to be a mistake because Button has to invest monies on multiple streets. So you're saying he's getting around 30:1 because you're using an average final pot size of 14 BB. I say that he's getting less than that, namely around 23:5.