Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play

[peterchi]

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Your equation is nice and all, but Metereon put it best:

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The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB.


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I really think it just simplifies the whole problem to think of it that way. Your hand is just so good it's not even funny here.

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Not saying that you're wrong, but I'm not yet convinced.

Given the description, button is calling 1 bet pretty much always. 2 bets, probably not so much.

I agree that it is most likely that UTG is full of [censored]. But 90%+, I don't know. And what do we do if 3-bet? I can't fold so basically then we are losing 3 bets.

I think the question for me is, do we win 4 bets often enough to overcome the times that we lose 3? Maybe so, but I'm still pondering. Either way, I don't think this is as obvious as you say. I may come around though, don't give up on me yet.

[Knockwurst]

Interesting analysis, most of which is over my head, but what about accounting for those times when the player behind us has the better hand and calls or even raises?

[peterchi]

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Interesting analysis, most of which is over my head, but what about accounting for those times when the player behind us has the better hand and calls or even raises?

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Given the player, action, and board, I think this probability is essentially negligible.

I call.

1 bet gets you BB's bet plus possibly Button's bet.

If you raise and BB doesn't have a 4, you lose the Button and get another bet from BB unless it was a stone cold bluff. So you get 1 more bet at most, but possibly none if both Button and BB fold.

If you raise and BB has a 4, BB reraises and your attempt at getting one more bet cost you 2.

[fizzleboink]

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I call.

1 bet gets you BB's bet plus possibly Button's bet.

If you raise and BB doesn't have a 4, you lose the Button and get another bet from BB unless it was a stone cold bluff. So you get 1 more bet at most, but possibly none if both Button and BB fold.

If you raise and BB has a 4, BB reraises and your attempt at getting one more bet cost you 2.

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Ok so since people are still saying you should call I'll put in some more reasonable numbers into my formula.

A = 0.8
B = 0.4 (I think 0.7 is way too high)
C = 1
D = 0.75

Hero needs to be ahead only ~56% of the time to make raising the correct play. TheMetetron has already said it is greater than 90%... but even if you disagree with that, surely it is higher than 56%!