Bellagio 10/20 hand

[okayplayer]

I like a call and push on the river. If you think he is real weak tight and will fold to a push, make it something like half your remaining stack, say $2500. I really see Villain as having AA/KK here, and most likely AA.

FWIW, I am not a fan of the weak turn bet, I would have potted it, so that when he raises, it basically is an all in for you. I think his turn raise is a way to get a cheap showdown, and I would not check this river fearing him checking behind.

I think he may just be bluffing your fake blocking bet and would have no intention of putting more money in the pot if you raised. This might be one of the few times I would go for a check/raise on the river. Actually, if he bets the river, he will probably just put you all in. There is a LOT of money in the pot and if Villain doesn't have a very good hand, he will want that $5K badly.

If you read that he has a decent hand, then I recommend pushing or calling and pushing the river.

After thinking over the hand, it is most likely you put him on AA/KK, so I would call and value bet the river.

[neon]

Wow, some really great discussion so far.

Villain in this hand is a quiet, oldish gentleman with a graying beard. I don't know what his name is.

He plays well, and though I'm not positive if he plays well enough to have eight outs against me on the turn, I have seen him do some pretty quirky stuff (fire flop and turn, overbet the river w/ TPTK to represent a bigger hand in a HU pot vs. another good player, for example [he got called and they chopped]).

So let's just say while I considered villain having J9 or KJ a possibility, it seemed to be a remote one, and much, much less likely than his having AA or KK or TT, and slightly less likely than AK or some sort of bluff hand that's drawing dead.

I'm gonna have to come back later (tomorrow, probably) to respond to some of the great posts you guys have made, cause I'm about an 8.5/10 for my hangover quotient at the moment, and really won't be able to give them the thought they deserve.

Thanks for the responses so far though.

[coltrane]

yeah, I agree with you Post-Oak, and I myself might've just called.....however, I still don't think the raise line is "awful" - especially when dealing with certain meta-game and table-image type things....if villain CAN get away (which I agree will sometimes be difficult if hero only bets half-pot or something on the river) and make good reads and good folds, I can see him taking a stand and not even allowing hero to possibly catch a 5-outer on the river......when playing live, sometimes you can just tell when someone has a set....

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......when playing live, sometimes you can just tell when someone has a set....

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...Especially in that deep of game.

[AEKDBet]

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I think he may just be bluffing your fake blocking bet and would have no intention of putting more money in the pot if you raised. This might be one of the few times I would go for a check/raise on the river. Actually, if he bets the river, he will probably just put you all in.

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Ding!

[tewall]

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furthermore, check calling does not show strength. that is weak tight thinking. strength can be one interpretation but it is usually weakness. [ QUOTE ]


Unless hero is an awful player, check-calling must show strength. With the given flop, he's not drawing. So given the action, what weak hand could he have?

[neon]

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if you lead the flop, you will stack him every time he has AA/KK.

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they have 450 BB's and villain is a good player....this isn't party poker.....

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I agree, and therefore threw all the standard stacking off 100BBs w/ a set vs. an overpair lines (lead/3-bet flop, check-call flop, CR turn) out the window.



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an all-in protects the pot, but there's no way he's calling without three tens

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During the hand, I actually thought that there was some chance villain would call a turn push with AA, but now I'm not so sure . . .


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if you've got him squarely on AA/KK, I like maybe taking a chance and doing something goofy like mini-ish raising him back $2500 and then betting the rest on the river.....he might not go for that either, but I think it's got some shot....

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I definitely considered doing something weird like this; the effective stacks make it really awkward to get the money in here (at least w/ the line I took, which I was rather fond of at the time, but I think may be slightly less than ideal). During the hand I struggled with the need to balance a few competing dynamics, namely, the degree to which villain thinks I'm full of [censored]/the frequency with which he'll look me up w/ one pair as a result, getting the most money in the pot, and the potential for scaring away all but three tens, either by betting too much and just blasting him out, or by making an all-too transparent value bet . . .

The problem I saw with this is that there's really little difference between min-reraising villain on the turn and just pushing over the top. I mean, what could he possibly expect to happen on the river other than for me to stick the rest in? I think I'd like this line a lot more if the effective stacks had been, say, another 100 BBs, or if I had assigned a higher likelihood to villain having an eight-out or even a four-out hand against me.

[neon]

Hi cero z,

Great post.

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What I would first try to determine here is whether this guy can have 8 outs against me, meaning, can he have made it 400 to go with KJ or J9. Only a terrible or excellent player will make that re-raise pre-flop.

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I didn't think it was very likely at all for villain to have 8 outs. Four with AK, possibly, but I would have been much more apt to give him credit for a gutshot if the turn had brought two to a suit and the possibility that he picked up the nut flush draw as well. Since it was a rainbow board, I didn't think a drawing hand was all that likely once he popped the turn.


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Then, I'd make sure that he's not bad enough to be raising with AA or KK here. Most good players would not make this play, since that bet is very unlikely to be called by a good player unless AA/KK is beaten, and it makes it harder for him to get away from it as the pot grows. Note: You could make an argument that if he has AA/KK, he could make that raise with the plan of not putting another penny in the pot, hoping you'll call and try a river check-raise if you have a monster. He might reason that 2500 is the cheapest he can get to the river. But, this play is very rare from a good player, I think.

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I have to admit, I was quite puzzled by villain's turn raise, since I did have him pretty squarely on AA/KK up to that point, and while he is not a bad player, I agree that raising these hands on the turn is a pretty terrible play, unless he was indeed trying to see a cheap showdown, hoping I would go for a CR on the river w/ a set, or freeze up w/ an overplayed AQ or KK.

[neon]

Hello Mr. Flynn,

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Turn you reduced your chances of stacking him by betting $500, and you reduced your earn vs AA/KK, so presumably you think he is overaggressive for big bets. Otherwise I don't like your turn play.

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Yeah, I don't think I like my turn play either.

Assuming that AA/KK is by far his most likely holding, and keeping in mind that villain thinks I'm at least a little bit full of [censored], what turn line do you like here, Matt?


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If he has a set it is >90% a set of tens and you get his stack almost always no matter how you play it. You can ignore that event. AA/KK seems far more likely for him than [AK/draw hands that will fire on the river]. If he's nutty aggressive you call, then check. Otherwise your optimal strategy approaches maximizing vs AA/KK. I would visualize him having AA/KK and play accordingly.

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100% agreed, and basically my thought processes during the hand. I didn't think it very likely he was drawing, and was pretty sure that if he was bluffing with one pair that was drawing dead (JJ/99), that he was done once I called his turn raise.