Buying Points and Related Issues/Sports Betting Theory Question

There are really no hard and fast rules, TJ. It comes down to situational calculation, occasional estimation, and very rarely subjectivity, ie whether I'm comfortable giving the points.

[YoureToast]

I've started to answer my own question. Here is what I have done. I sampled 3 games this week at Pinnacle at random for the purpose of getting a general idea of how line moves affect their juice. Starting with Atlanta -5.5, I move through 3 games and get the various differentials between the various juice amounts. Therefore, by doing this, I should get a good idea of how the "juice" amount should change by simply adding up the various differentials.

Here is how I worked it (numbers in parenthesis are the various differentials between the current line and the line immediately prior):

Atlanta lines:
-5.5 -111
-6 -106 (5)
-6.5 +100 (6)
-7 +115 (15)

Ravens:
-7 -108
-7.5 +105 (13)
-8 +108 (3)
-8.5 +113 (5)

Cincinnatti:
-8.5 -114
-9 -111 (3)
-9.5 -104 (7)
-10 +105 (9)
-10.5 +115 (10)

Based on this, for a line move from -5.5 to -10.5, I should expect to get an addition 76 "juice points" (ie. if Atlanta is favored at -5.5 -110, I would be getting equal value if I got Atlanta at -10.5 +166). I assume that if I picked three other random games with similar lines, I'd get similar results.

One pseudo-fallacy with this approach that I can think of is that the differentials are set by Pinnacle based on what they perceive to be the standard line. For example, I would guess that the differential of 10 for the -10 to -10.5 line move would actually be a little less than the number it is now (10), but I'm not sure about this.

According to TradeSports right now, I can buy a few Atlanta -10.5 contracts at +150. According to my analysis above, thats a little short.

Anyone else see any holes in this approach?

Two problems - 1) Pinnacle increases the vig when you move lines off the "original" number, and 2) Pinnacle sometimes assigns more line movement points to one side than the other -- to solve this, you need to average the movements of both Atlanta and Minny as they move from 5.5 to 7, and in all other cases. After that, you'll need to subtract the extra vig Pinnacle takes from problem 1.

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According to TradeSports right now, I can buy a few Atlanta -10.5 contracts at +150. According to my analysis above, thats a little short.

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Actually it's +147 accounting for trading and expiry fees.

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
Two problems - 1) Pinnacle increases the vig when you move lines off the "original" number, and 2) Pinnacle sometimes assigns more line movement points to one side than the other -- to solve this, you need to average the movements of both Atlanta and Minny as they move from 5.5 to 7, and in all other cases. After that, you'll need to subtract the extra vig Pinnacle takes from problem 1.

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Good points.
Let me know when you've completed your analysis taking into account these factors. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

All kidding aside, I think we're on to something, no?

Yeah really. This is what you get when you just met a major deadline at work.

The problem is those TS offerings just don't get much action -- the value possibilities are all potential. I would even guess those very few who trade it on the other side are savvy bettors themselves.

[YoureToast]

After some back of the postcard analysis, my differential for the same 3 games increased to 82.

I reduced the vig for each set of lines so that the total vig for each game was 8. I essentially split the vig in half for each side.
After doing this, for each of the 3 games I chose, the differential was exactly the same on for each team (so no averaging necessary). Heres the numbers I came up with.

-5.5
-6 (7)
-6.5 (7)
-7 (16)
-7.5 (13)
-8 (6)
-8.5 (6)
-9 (3)
-9.5 (4)
-10 (11)
-10.5 (9)

Total = 82.

So for Atlanta -10.5, I'd need about +172 to get fair value.

Actually, if you're starting out from Atl -5.5 -110, you'll need +183. Here's why:

Theoretically, each cent move occurs as close to +100 as possible. For example, I think you'd agree a 10 cent line move from +100 to +110 is more significant than a move from +200 to +210. (edit: As another example), the move of the last 20 cents from +152 to +172 in your method does not accurately approximate the last 20 cent, near +100 moves from 9 to 10.5. As a result, the best way to accurately analyze an 82 cent move is by finding the percent difference between +141 and -141.

Continuing to the calculation, the percent value of +141 is 41.49% (100/(100+141); the percent value of -141 is 58.51% (141/(100+141). The difference between these two is 17.02%. The percent value of -110 is 52.38%. Finding the equivalent value of Atl -10.5 is then determined by performing 52.38% - 17.02% = 35.36%. As a converted money line value, 35.36% is equal to +183. (edit: (100/35.36%)-100 = 182.8)

[papilindo]

By TJ: "unless you can become the broker and for me that has been by grinding out middles in baseball when I find numbers that put me in a no lose situation."

I've been following this thread w/ interest and I found the above statment incredible. I've never heard of a "no lose" situation, at least from the bettors perspective. How is this possible?

[papilindo]

By TJ: "unless you can become the broker and for me that has been by grinding out middles in baseball when I find numbers that put me in a no lose situation."

I've been following this thread w/ interest and I found the above statment incredible. I've never heard of a "no lose" situation, at least from the bettors perspective. How is this possible?