stars $114 turbo - big draw on the bubble - Page 3

augie00 · #21 07-03-2005, 05:35 PM

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If he isn't folding I'd let her go, your stack is in too good of shape to take a flip like this on the bubble.

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You and I may be the only people that aren't ready to give up their entire stack 1 seat out of the money with a 55/45 edge. I wonder if that makes us idiots?

augie00 · #22 07-03-2005, 05:40 PM

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So you think the play in this hand is to fold pf for 200 more?

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If you're only going to stay in if you flop two pair or better... yes.

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I don't need to flop 2 pair or better to stay in. Why would you assume that? I'm not, however, comfortable going out 4th when i have 4k in chips.

Nacarno · #23 07-03-2005, 06:04 PM

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I don't need to flop 2 pair or better to stay in. Why would you assume that? I'm not, however, comfortable going out 4th when i have 4k in chips.

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Ok, my mistake. I assumed it because you've flopped a very strong holding with your T9s and still aren't willing to play. What flops would you be happy with? KT6? Or is it more of a question that the chip leader bet into you? If so, then it becomes a question of your read on how often he will bluff/bet the flop that determines if calling 300 to win the 700 in the pot (assuming the BB folds) is correct. Since you haven't told us about your read of the chip leader before the flop, I can only base my responses on what kinds of hands I'd be willing to play strongly on the flop and I consider your flop to be very good for that particular hand.

wdcbooks · #24 07-03-2005, 06:29 PM

Of all the weak tight folds I have seen this may just be the weakest tightest, dare I say pussiest fold I have seen this year. What hands are you worried about You are 55% against AA as well as AK. You have the pot odds to call if he flips over freaking KK!!!

I would rather see the flop you got than something like T22 with that flop you could be way behind an overpair. Here there is nothing you are way behind, and many hands you have a solid advantage over. Not to mention the pot is laying you an even better price.

Finally let's dispel the nonsense about him not folding. Every decent player steals on occasion and there are at least some non-steals he is folding to an all in. We know he doesn't have KK or JJ by the big bet. He may hold something like KT that he would fold to an all in, or even QQ. Come to think of it QQ is a possibility that he would almost certainly fold thinking he is looking at two outs.

Long story short, I would never fold this. He would have to turn over KK or As Qs to convince me to fold. Sorry dude, but this had to be the product of a major brain fart, because math and probability don't support your fold.

augie00 · #25 07-03-2005, 08:08 PM

So I take it you are cool going out in 4th sitting on 4k in chips?

Spook · #26 07-03-2005, 09:09 PM

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So I take it you are cool going out in 4th sitting on 4k in chips?

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So would you push if you both were even in chips? Covered him by 25?
Where would you need to be stackwise to push here.

Freudian · #27 07-03-2005, 09:22 PM

I would push here every time.

Would you push with two Aces? If so, why wouldn't you want to push this?

And I think he is folding a tonne of hands if you push.

augie00 · #28 07-03-2005, 09:26 PM

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Would you push with two Aces? If so, why wouldn't you want to push this?

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I would not have smoothcalled a miniraise on the flop with AA. If for some reason I had, I would push. Sure. But AA is a much bigger favorite than 9Ts is here. You can't be serious.

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And I think he is folding a tonne of hands if you push.

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I specifically said that I do not think i have very much fold equity here, if any. I hope you missed that.

Freudian · #29 07-03-2005, 09:27 PM

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I specifically said that I do not think i have very much fold equity here, if any. I hope you missed that.

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And I specifically said I think you are dead wrong about that.

augie00 · #30 07-03-2005, 09:29 PM

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So I take it you are cool going out in 4th sitting on 4k in chips?

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So would you push if you both were even in chips? Covered him by 25?
Where would you need to be stackwise to push here.

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I would prefer to cover by at least 600-800 to push here. I want to have one chance to come back if he calls w/ AK or something and I brick. I just don't see any sense putting all my chips at risk w/ such a small edge.