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#21
09-25-2005, 02:19 PM
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Re: Calling AI in the BB, in the final table.
[ QUOTE ]
easy fold for Sirio11. [/ QUOTE ] why? this isn't a supersat with final X places getting the same money, its prize structure makes it optimal to play for first i think. you have a little odds and are probably even a slight favorite to double up. don't see how you should "easily fold" in a spot thats pretty clearly +EV. 
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#22
09-25-2005, 02:35 PM
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Re: Calling AI in the BB, in the final table.
[ QUOTE ]
you have a little odds and are probably even a slight favorite to double up. don't see how you should "easily fold" in a spot thats pretty clearly +EV. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think A6s is the favorite on average. However, it may not be more than a 44% underdog on average, which makes the call chip EV+.
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#23
09-25-2005, 02:37 PM
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Re: Calling AI in the BB, in the final table.
I'm on the fence on this one. Some people may think of it as a winner-take-all format, but it's not, even if the seat is what you want. I suspect it's right to fold because this seems like a pretty marginal situation.
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#24
09-25-2005, 02:39 PM
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Re: Calling AI in the BB, in the final table.
well, maybe not, but if he's pushing 33%, then according to pokerstove you're right about 49-50%, and if he's pushing half your up toabout 55%. so its just a question of how much he pushes obviously... but i doubt if the guy isn't too tight that he's pushing less than 1/3 here.
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#25
09-25-2005, 02:44 PM
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Re: Calling AI in the BB, in the final table.
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I don't believe that most good players will push with 50% of their hands on the button. I think this is an exageration. [/ QUOTE ] If you push on the button with 8xB and some ante and you get called half the time and win the hand 36% of the time you are called, you are chip EV even. So pushing with half of your hands seems reasonable, particularly with a top loaded prize structure.
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#26
09-25-2005, 02:45 PM
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Re: Calling AI in the BB, in the final table.
and it's not exactly like you have tons of time to manuever.. you'll probably be stealing the blinds w/ worse in a fe hands.. Clearly doing the stealing is better than defending, but something to consider.
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#27
09-25-2005, 02:49 PM
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Re: Calling AI in the BB, in the final table.
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and it's not exactly like you have tons of time to manuever.. [/ QUOTE ] yes. with only 7.5 BB left its not like you can just sit on your stack and get into a money spot. plus if you do double up, having a good stack will be very profitable in these spots where most of the table is pretty tight and you can steal blinds pretty easily. plus this call, if you survive, might help discourage others from taking shots at your blinds with weak hands since you will defend.
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#28
09-25-2005, 04:14 PM
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Re: Calling AI in the BB, in the final table.
Here are the top 50% of your hands: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q4o+,Q2s+,J8o+,J5s+,T9o,T7s+,98s Sorry, but I simply don't believe that most players online are pushing Q5o here and T9o, along with many of the other hands listed above. I'd say it's far more likely that these hands will be folded from the button than pushed. Of course you will find some players who will push them, but I don't think this will be the case most of the time. Also please note that the ante is much smaller than most antes are, at only 1/20th of the BB. This makes the fact that there are antes in play, a lot less of a factor than it would be if the antes were 300 or so.
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#29
09-25-2005, 04:47 PM
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Re: Calling AI in the BB, in the final table.
It's tough without reads on the button. But since it's folded to him, he could easily be on a steal with a hand you have beat. But you are likely only a 55-60% favorite against his range of hands.
Tough spot, you don't have many chips, and there are still two more players to go out, and those blinds go around fast. Taking a stand and calling her isn't bad, but I can't fault you for a fold either. But it's usually better to be the pusher than the pushee. I think you're slightly ahead here most of the time against a good, thinking player (one who might push here with Q/7 suited). While you're behind or close to a coin flip against an average player
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#30
09-25-2005, 04:48 PM
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Re: Calling AI in the BB, in the final table.
[ QUOTE ]
Here are the top 50% of your hands: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q4o+,Q2s+,J8o+,J5s+,T9o,T7s+,98s Sorry, but I simply don't believe that most players online are pushing Q5o here and T9o, along with many of the other hands listed above. I'd say it's far more likely that these hands will be folded from the button than pushed. Of course you will find some players who will push them, but I don't think this will be the case most of the time. Also please note that the ante is much smaller than most antes are, at only 1/20th of the BB. This makes the fact that there are antes in play, a lot less of a factor than it would be if the antes were 300 or so. [/ QUOTE ] I took a deck and dealt 26 2 cards hands. I came up with 1/3 that are definate button pushes: ATs, 33, QQ, 65s, KQo, A9o, AQs, A7s, 87s. Another 4 make it 50%: 74s, 96s, T9o, and K8s. I tried it again and got 11 definate pushes: ATo, 44, 76s, 98s, 86s, KQo, A3s, A2s, QJo, A6o, and JJ. Three more make a majority: K3s, T9o, and 43s. I would probably push 50%, but a lot of players would push 1/3 of their hands. Any tighter than 1/3 is way too tight, but there are players that tight. It is reasonable to assume that button pushes with 1/3 of his hands. About 40% of the top 1/3 hands I give dominate A6s, so I think your odds are pretty close to the pot odds of 44%. If button is tight and is not pushing suited connectors and such, this is a definate fold. At a full table in a live tournament, with 3xBB in antes and blinds, I think button should push with more than half his hands.
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