GB getting points at home

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Quoting official Rule #10 again

<font color="purple">(bribes are encouraged- compliments don't count). </font>

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rebuked for kindness

[Easy E]

Kindness don't pay my rent, baby.

[MookieBlaylock]

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It seemed to me Mookie decided Tampa Bay is a great team based on 2 somewhat impressive victories where they barely made a single mistake (sample of 2 games being unrepresentative of their true mistake/turnover rate), and that Green Bay is utterly incapable of putting up a fight against TB based on their 2 performances. So maybe I didn't state the point clearly enough, or alternately, understand Mookie clearly enough: I hear too often in NFL game picking that X play was a good one despite unforeseen events occuring (those I mentioned -- own field turnovers etc.) that are in fact totally foreseeable and occur constantly in NFL games.


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I didnt say TB was a great team. I just think they are a better team than GB. GB has already lost to a horrible Detroit team that just got beat by the Bears. GBs D also let Cle score at will and made Dilfer look like a solid QB. So not only can their defense not stop the ball (esp. the run), they are facing a tough TB defense. Much tougher than the Cleveland D they struggled to score on last week. I know TB has struggled at Lambeau in the past, but weather should not be a problem. Also, TB is 3-1 ATS vs. GB the last 4 years. Sorry if I offended you, I just think TB is a solid pick in this case.

lol no not offended at all. However, I stand by my warning. You're basing your analysis of GB on 2 games while crediting TB's 3-1 ATS record in the last 4 against GB as having indicative betting value.

In fact I also think TB is a decent pick, but the "No way TB doesn't cover the spread" stuff based on 2 games is myopic and not wise in the LR.

[MookieBlaylock]

Well, all the analysis I am using is based, at least partially, on the last 2 weeks. And of course you cant say "no way team X doesnt cover the spread", this is the NFL. Anything can happen. I didnt get the Ticket until week 2, so I didnt see GBs 1st loss, but I did see the poor showing against Cle. I guess we'll see on Sunday. GL this weekend.

Same to you Mookie. Just trying to change your thinking a bit.

[MookieBlaylock]

Much obliged.

[MookieBlaylock]

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If Mookie has accounted for "unforeseen" but totally foreseeable events like Griese's predilection for fumbling, special teams play and own field turnovers, then I take back what I said.

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These words were ringing in my ear as a late Griese pick sunk my TB wager... You nailed that one sygamel.

I nailed the analysis yet...I took TB -3.5 1 unit. Ah well. I never feel comfortable betting faves and this game was no different.