Sick bubble call

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I won't push with the very worst hands there just because of the likelihood that SB will call, but the big stack's range there (and even moreso at higher levels, not the other way around like some of you are saying) is MUCH MUCH wider than a lot of you are giving him credit for.

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With the dead money in the pot if the SB calls and the BB folds I am extremely happy to get allin against him with 72o.

[UMTerp]

I find you start geting called a lot when you don't want to be if you do something like that at the lower levels.

Pot-odds wise, I certainly won't argue though.

[flytrap]

You MUST call here, for many reasons. First off, it's not the end of the world to get 4th. And getting third is nice, but when you get good opportunities to win, you need to take them. By folding, you're playing for 3rd, with no guarantee of actually getting it, since the short stack could get lucky. It's not all that unlikely that the short stack will get lucky, as the hand he will be facing when all-in probably won't be that good. You'll feel absolutely sick if you fold QQ there and shorty doubles up. If folding were much more likely to assure third, like maybe if shorty only had t20 or something, then maybe a fold is in order.
By calling, you are giving yourself a real shot at winning the tourney, but of course you may finish 4th that way. In the long run, calling and playing for 1st is by far the better play, but if you can't handle finishing 4th, then by all means fold, as it gives you a better chance of finishing in the money.

[jedinite]

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a decent player knows that the moderate stack (hero) will fold almost anything to avoid bubbling.

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Sure - but can't you also assume that the agressor assumes the hero knows that, and is thus only going to make the move all-in with a bigger than average range of hands? Maybe I'm over-thinking it with the addition of the small stack going out next hand (i.e. over-emphasizing that factor), but in the shoes of the agressor I could see the SB calling with medium PP or better assuming I'm leading out with any two just trying to exploit the bubble. But maybe I'm just being weak/tight [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure - but can't you also assume that the agressor assumes the hero knows that, and is thus only going to make the move all-in with a bigger than average range of hands? Maybe I'm over-thinking it with the addition of the small stack going out next hand (i.e. over-emphasizing that factor), but in the shoes of the agressor I could see the SB calling with medium PP or better assuming I'm leading out with any two just trying to exploit the bubble. But maybe I'm just being weak/tight

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Obviously there's a certain degree of "thinking on other levels" going on, particularly at the higher levels, but there's a point where you just can't outthink the math. According to ICM, if the big stack pushes and SB folds, in order for BB's call to be $EV-neutral, he'll need to win the showdown 73.34% of the time. So even if the BB is absolutely certain the button's range is ANY TWO CARDS, there's only a select few hands with which he can correctly make a call. This range is TT or better, and does not include AK.

Power of the big stack on the bubble...

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
Really? My instint was opposite - that higher buy-ins are less likely to go all-in with a 5x BB raise without something really big when the likely bubble-er is going to be pot committed all-in after posting next hand.



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We can assume the higher the buy in the better the player. The better the player, the wider range of hands he has when raising here. This is because of the reason you just stated, one very short stack being present on the bubble.

[Newt_Buggs]

Did I miss it or am I the first one saying fold here? Well, not necessarily but if the big stack hasn't been abusing the bubble and the SB is relatively loose I'm folding. My main concern with folding that ICM doesn't address is that if the SB is stupid and folds (he should call with a wide range) and then folds the next hand you have to suck down a big blind while still on the bubble.

I agree that at a higher buy in this would be an easier call. The SB is more likely to call and get knocked out if you fold and the BS is more likely to be pushing most hands.

[TWINUNO]

Arent the players in lower levels actaully tighter around the bubble since they dont uderstand the concept. But might spite call ith less?

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
Arent the players in lower levels actaully tighter around the bubble since they dont uderstand the concept. But might spite call ith less?



[/ QUOTE ]

For the most part yes, but I think when there is a really short stack as is the case here, your much less likely to see a "spite call".

I call. I think you have to play for first. The times that you get knocked out in fourth, will be more than made up for by the times you finish first. By folding and most likely sneaking into third place, I think you're giving up money you would have won by geting second or first.