(109) more AQ bubble fun with raptor

[microbet]

I dunno, thing is Raptor knows what he's doing which means you can very often just reply to his posts that it's so close it doesn't matter, or maybe just that reads would make too much difference.

p.s. Agreeing with G00t has shattered my confidence. I'm doomed.

So Hero has to lose to both villains to bust out here. I think he's probably between 60-40 and 50-50 vs each individually (big stack can call any two profitbaly $EV-wise here if he assumes villain will fold). So Hero will lose here something like 16-25% of the time.

Pre-post, Hero has about 27% equity, so when he loses here he's burning 4.3-6.8% equity in the prize pool on that side of the ledger by calling. If we assume he always beats them both the rest of the time, his total equity increases to 38.1% a change of +11.1%. This happens 75-84% of the time under our assumption, so the net gain on this side of the ledger is 8.3-9.3%.

That looks like a call, but we're ignoring the significant cases where shorty triples up and hero beats big stack, as well as the cases where both hero and shorty go out. I'm really not sure how to assign percentages to those. I'd guess Hero actually beats them both closer to 40% of the time for a an EV gain of 4.4% which is no better than break-even with the times he loses to both, and since in both cases where the result is intermediate Hero is giving up equity, I think this is probably a fold. I'd love to see a more definitive math answer from someone with more experience, though.

In the heat of it, I'm folding this without much thought. I'd probably only call with a PP, preferably a big one, though I might go down to say JJ/TT/99.

[Irieguy]

I would never fold here. Ever.

But the poll says I suck.

Irieguy

[lacky]

why would you play this hand when your not desperate, but pass the other when you are? I'm missing something.

[z32fanatic]

I would call for these reasons:
1. If the shorty wins then the next hand he has 1400 before posting and you only have 1800 before posting the SB. I would put your odds of moneying at ~60-65%.
2. I think the big stack pushes almost anything here because he should want to keep the bubble alive and steal from all of you so you are almost always ahead of him and possibly have him dominated.
3. You can help knock the shorty out.
4. If you win you will have 5000 and will be a large favorite to win the tourney.
5. The chances of you losing to the shorty and the shorty beating the big stack are not good. You are not likely to bubble here.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
why would you play this hand when your not desperate, but pass the other when you are? I'm missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because here shorty is so desperate, and the big stack so loose that I love this chance to change the scenery.

In the other hand I would need to be awfully desperate, and awfully live to call a push from somebody that doesn't need chips.

Irieguy

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why would you play this hand when your not desperate, but pass the other when you are? I'm missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because here shorty is so desperate, and the big stack so loose that I love this chance to change the scenery.

In the other hand I would need to be awfully desperate, and awfully live to call a push from somebody that doesn't need chips.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish I was as succinct as you. I would have said the same thing with about 12 more sentences.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why would you play this hand when your not desperate, but pass the other when you are? I'm missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because here shorty is so desperate, and the big stack so loose that I love this chance to change the scenery.

In the other hand I would need to be awfully desperate, and awfully live to call a push from somebody that doesn't need chips.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm so glad I'm not going insane here (or at least I have company).

1) we're probably a favorite in this pot against their ranges
2) busting shorty is good, and we very much increase the chances of shorty getting busted

[lacky]

ok, I love calling anyway, so you've conviced me, I call in both hands

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, I love calling anyway, so you've conviced me, I call in both hands

[/ QUOTE ]

ok so i got you to make the correct play on one of the hands.. now on to the next.. holla