interesting 5&5 hand against maniac - Page 3

freemoney · #21 02-09-2005, 01:48 AM

To say you would fold here is being totally results oriented after looking at the results, I dont think you played the hand so bad at all, theres a good chance he could be way behind (drawing near dead) like two pair, lower set based on your description and even with this hand you still win the pot 35% of the time. I dont think you played it so bad at all

WorldBeater · #22 02-09-2005, 02:20 AM

"I don't see how you fold top set here against a guy who it sounds like could easily have

smaller set
straight
pair + draw
bluff
flush draw"

There's a few reasons why I might fold:
1. The pot had not been raised. I have a minimal amount invested in the pot.
2. The money is very deep.
3. The poster gave some indication that this player was not neccesarily all that bad, so I might opt to give him a lit bit of respect from time to time.
4. If the opponent is actually going all-in every time he gets a pair + flush draw, flush draw, etc. and the other hands listed in the hands range above, there should be another opportunity coming up soon that I would feel more comfortable with.

I'm willing to be convinced that folding would have been a terrible play, although, I think I am just giving the villain a little more respect and taking into consideration that the money is very deep. I might have considered waiting for a better opportunity. I don't think calling was bad, if the hero had the villain on the range of hands you had listed. So if in fact the villain would have played the other hands in the range identical to this one, then the call was great.

"I stick it all in there and hope he doesn't have a straight. As the player was described, I can't imagine not being a significant favorite to his range of hands."

Most of the posters agreed with this, and I can't disagree that it may have been the best play.

FoxwoodsFiend · #23 02-09-2005, 04:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]

There's a few reasons why I might fold:
1. The pot had not been raised. I have a minimal amount invested in the pot.
3. The poster gave some indication that this player was not neccesarily all that bad, so I might opt to give him a lit bit of respect from time to time.
4. If the opponent is actually going all-in every time he gets a pair + flush draw, flush draw, etc. and the other hands listed in the hands range above, there should be another opportunity coming up soon that I would feel more comfortable with.

[/ QUOTE ]
1: It never matters how much you've invested in the hand-it matters how much money you can win and whether you're ahead. This is fairly obvious.
3: He's good, but in the sense that he seems to know what he's doing, but giving him credit from time to time just means randomly deciding to respect him, and unless you have a read you just can't start guessing when a thousand dollars from him means nothing and when it means he's got you demolished.
4: Waiting for a better spot is ridiculous. Hero can re-buy and wait anyway. Once again, all that matters is if you're ahead or not. Against a player like this you can't just nut-peddle which is normally what "wait for a better spot" means.

Ulysses · #24 02-09-2005, 05:06 AM

See FF's post. He said pretty much what I would say. I just want to reiterate that from reading the initial post, I can't see how you think this is not a significantly +EV spot for hero to push.

Do this exercise. Come up with what you think is a reasonable weighting of non-straight hands Villain could have. Now, figure out what percentage of time Villian has to have a straight vs. the other hands for this to be a -EV spot.

WorldBeater · #25 02-09-2005, 05:12 AM

"It never matters how much you've invested in the hand-it matters how much money you can win and whether you're ahead. This is fairly obvious."

Doesn't whether or not this is a raised pot affect the strategy of the hand? How much you have in the pot, does relate to whether or not the pot was raised preflop. To extend this further, the amount that you have in the pot preflop does affect the dynamics of the hand to some extent.

I agree with your main point that what you have in the pot should not generally affect your decision about making a call.

Sounds like the poster made a good call.

Kaz The Original · #26 02-09-2005, 07:44 AM

The reason it is important is because on a board of 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] he could easily have a hand like 8s9s.

On a board of 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he's less likely to have a hand like 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

aggie · #27 02-09-2005, 08:14 AM

Yea, the foxwoods game is very interesting...FYI, the MIT kid went on one of the greatest runs i have ever seen in this game on that night. He was reportedly up like 40k at one point.

The 2.5k was probably below the median stack in this particular game. At one point, before i started playing, there were 6 people with over 10k on the table. Most of these people were very, very good players.

TurkeyBreast · #28 02-09-2005, 03:39 PM

Why hasn't anyone taken into account the fact that there is a bet and a raise coming to the maniac in this situation. If you ascribe some intelligence to him you have to give him credit for a straight or SF draw in my mind (or maybe just the nut flush draw). I mean can you really expect him to have 2 pair or a lower set after it goes bet, raise, reraise huge? I think you're probably plus ev to toss it here against this guy and most players. The only way I'd want to put my whole stack in here is against someone that I consider to be really tilted out or just a moron in general

aggie · #29 02-09-2005, 04:27 PM

Bullying can be an effective tactic...This guy know's that, and uses it to the extreme...He wins monster pots when he wins but also loses many monster pots. He can often do okay in the foxwoods game because people fail to adjust to him properly. They might put in a raise and fold to a giant reraise. Now I'm not certain risking my whole stack here was +ev, but i'm pretty sure it was (probably marginally).....

Where you're wrong, is that he could have many different hands. Straight, flush draw, st8 flush draw, 2-pair, smaller set, overpair, total bluff, pair and flush draw...

while the st8 was more likely than a bluff, i don't think it was by much.

creedofhubris · #30 02-09-2005, 06:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Where you're wrong, is that he could have many different hands. Straight, flush draw, st8 flush draw, 2-pair, smaller set, overpair, total bluff, pair and flush draw...

while the st8 was more likely than a bluff, i don't think it was by much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've met some "loose aggro" players who make their money by overbetting the nuts when they do hit them, so I tend to be wary, but from what you describe, he's overbetting a wide variety of hands, so I retract my prior advice.

I crunched some numbers, and now I'm firmly in the "Diablo is right as usual" camp.

Your EV can't be worse than .305 (if he's got the nut straight and a redraw to a flush), so it's at worst a ~$500 mistake to move in if he has you beat, but it's a ~$2500 mistake NOT to move in if he's got a smaller set or two pair.

You pretty much have to move in.