(11) A play I dont see very often

[tigerite]

You don't see it very often for a reason.

That's all.

[SonnyJay]

For your play to break even:

Currently: 650 (ICM: .088)

ALL IN
A) Everyone folds (x%)
Hero: 785 (ICM: .1044)

B) Get Called (MP1) (1-x%)

i) 2 Overcards (55-45) (80% of the time when you get called)
55%: Hero: 1405 (ICM: .1741)
45%: Hero: 0

i) Overpair (20% of the time you get called)
20%: Hero: 1405 (ICM: .1741)
80%: Hero: 0

.55*.1741= .095755

.2*.1741= .03482

.8*.095755 + .2*.03482= .083568 ICM when you get called

x*.1044 + (1-x)*.083568 = .088
.1044x + .083568 - .083568x = .088
.020832x=.004432
x=.2127

You have to fold your opponent 21.3% of the time to break even vs. a fold. I'm sure you'll do that, but you are passing up a very favorable opportunity to hit your set cheaply against loose opponents.

No one is can stop you from making this play, but I'd listen to the advice being given. As I said, +EV isn't the end of the argument. There can be a better, more +EV answer out there.

-SonnyJay

[golfcchs]

Thanks for the reply really great post. Could you run these numbers if I had 550 chips. I'am starting to think my stack may have been a little large for this play, but I do believe this is very profitable as my stack gets smaller.

[golfcchs]

I see no one is in favor of my play. Would anyone make this with a shorter stack? How short would you have to be to make this push?