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#1
06-16-2005, 05:01 PM
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Re: looking for the muck? can i find it? should i?
I said that the SB likely has you beaten, and I think he has a big hand. However, he could have T9, K9 or Q9 with the heart, who knows. The UTG guy obviously has AK or AQ with the Ah, as I said in my original post. If this was headsup with teh SB you would never fold (I hope), so why would you here?
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#2
06-16-2005, 04:53 PM
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Re: looking for the muck? can i find it? should i?
Does this reak of 56 to anyone else? Preflop he sees the value in calling. Flop he is open ended. Turn he hits but is weary of the flush decides to raise. The initial raisor in my opinion has the ace of hearts and just caught his ace. His actions have no bearing on whether I fold or call.
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#3
06-16-2005, 05:37 PM
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Re: looking for the muck? can i find it? should i?
Yeah, 6-5 or even J-T. IMO, mike's in second place at best. Sb has been playing snug, now he makes a move on this draw-rich pot into so many other players? And still bets when an ace comes on the river?
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#5
06-16-2005, 05:15 PM
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Re: looking for the muck? can i find it? should i?
[ QUOTE ]
I can't see a fold here. SB's 78, Kh(T,7,8,9) and UTG's Ace with some sort of heart have here more probability than your pot odds i believe. [/ QUOTE ] the only hand i saw that sb could have here is 87. he cold called and c'red teh turn. if you were going to call it would be on that singular hand probability alone. -Barron
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#6
06-16-2005, 05:28 PM
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Barron, don\'t let logic interfere with your gut.
Barron, go with your gut. Your gut said call. If you muck the winner here, you wont be able to handle the truth, and it will have a negative impact on the rest of your evening.
Don't let yourself get talked out of your gut instinct by Bruiser's logical examination as to what the bettor might hold. Call it. . . it is extremely close ev. even if it is slightly -ev, you have to figure in the additional psychological implied -ev of mucking the river with the winner for 1 bet. What is -ev thinking is equating $80 to real world dollars. You shouldn't see it as 5 omelets or 2 tanks of gas or the month's electric bill: it is 1 BB, just like $1 is 1BB at .50/$1. TSP
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#7
06-16-2005, 05:32 PM
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Re: Barron, don\'t let logic interfere with your gut.
[ QUOTE ]
Barron, go with your gut. Your gut said call. If you muck the winner here, you wont be able to handle the truth, and it will have a negative impact on the rest of your evening. Don't let yourself get talked out of your gut instinct by Bruiser's logical examination as to what the bettor might hold. Call it. . . it is extremely close ev. even if it is slightly -ev, you have to figure in the additional psychological implied -ev of mucking the river with the winner for 1 bet. What is -ev thinking is equating $80 to real world dollars. You shouldn't see it as 5 omelets or 2 tanks of gas or the month's electric bill: it is 1 BB, just like $1 is 1BB at .50/$1. TSP [/ QUOTE ] very good point...the two things leaning toward the callare 1) there is only 1 hand sb can have that we beat, which is more than 0. and 2) the psychological loss if we're wrong and fold. but i could sure go for a bellagio classic right now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] -Barron
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#8
06-16-2005, 05:36 PM
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Re: Barron, don\'t let logic interfere with your gut.
I think this is one of those situations, because of the size of the pot, that mucking and worrying about what he had for the next 8 hours is worth the 1 BB call. It's not like you don't have anything, either.
I'll treat you to Bellagio classic next year if you talk Enon out of posting the picture of me wiping the soda off the Bellagio floor. TSP
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#9
06-16-2005, 05:33 PM
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Re: Barron, don\'t let logic interfere with your gut.
TSP you are mixing things up. His gut said to fold, he said it's probably ev- but than came up with rationalizatinos to call
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#10
06-16-2005, 05:44 PM
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Re: looking for the muck? can i find it? should i?
I disagree with this. What does SB know? He sees that Mike reraises pot of 16sb's on flop. Other players don't show more agressivity. Probably they have non-flush (or complete flush) good cards and planning to bet/reraise turn, but also probably that they are drawing to overcards/straight/heart. What does has Mike? Maybe Ah(794), maybe Qh9 and raise to see where he is, maybe T8h etc... Do we remember SB is loose so he tend to call more than needed and think less than needed?
But the flop is too scary so i just call and see a turn. OMG the turn is perfect card for my K9 (TT,JJ also make some sense) but it's still dangerous - maybe someone slowplays something... Ok, lets see what will happen with our K9 and if i check turn and there is no more bet/raises from anyone and only single bet from Mike i will c/r his ass to introduce a flush/set to push damn overcards out of here. The pot is big and i have some chances to have a best hand currently... river: damn ace... thanks a bit it's not a heart. Anyway pot is to big to push one more bet in air and fold if raised. Maybe they have KK-JJ and muck here... I guess there is around 9-10% of probability for Mike to be ahead of both. Though i can be wrong and influenced a bit with some pots i had online where in such pots were taken by TPBK when i fold TPGK refusing to overcall two guys on river.
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