Post deleted by Mat Sklansky - Page 3

SheridanCat · #21 08-27-2005, 01:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]

dude, you know you're supposed to go by odds for the next card only, right?

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Not in this case. On a nut flush draw (or any flush draw, really, or open-ended straight draw, etc) you should be using effective odds (the odds with more than one card to come) since you will certainly be seeing the river in most cases, it's proper to use these odds.

If you only use the immediate pot odds, you'll find yourself folding when you shouldn't be.

[ QUOTE ]

you are offered 1:3 on a 1:~4 (little more)

but you should still call, cause you can make up the unprofitable call you just made on later streets

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Just a note that odds against are given first, by convention.

As you can tell by using the effective odds, the call is often not unprofitable.

Regards,

T

SheridanCat · #22 08-27-2005, 01:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
"The time to make big laydowns is preflop. The time to make loose calls is on the river. Bad players do the exact opposite."

[/ QUOTE ]

This really is excellent, I think.

Regards,

T

AKQJ10 · #23 08-27-2005, 01:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
"The time to make big laydowns is preflop. The time to make loose calls is on the river. Bad players do the exact opposite."

OK, OK, that's more than one line. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed with SheridanCat, that's excellent. That's not an Ed Miller quote is it? Sounds like something he might emphasize.

Kurn, son of Mogh · #24 08-27-2005, 03:07 PM

That's not an Ed Miller quote is it?

I don't know that it's even an actual quote, but it's great advice that I've heard somewhere.

Cooker · #25 08-28-2005, 02:50 PM

Both posts are not the proper way to think about the situation in terms of odds. As Sheridan Cat points out, you need to consider effective odds if you plan to see the river, but then doesn't complete the proper analysis. You not are getting 3 to 1 in effective odds, you are getting 5 to 3 (the 5 comes from 3 in the pot plus one opponents BB on the turn the, the 3 comes from your flop call plus your turn call) in effective odds which is just not quite right to call. However, if your opponent will not bet the turn every time or he will often pay off on the river you have more than enough implied odds to make this a clear call. I think this is a clear call against almost all opponents.

Whenever you are considering continueing with a draw you need to decide what is the most favorable way to play it, and then correctly think about the odds or you risk missing profitable calls. In NL, you should always use the odds with one more card to come unless you are in an all in situation on the flop. In limit, the bigger draws are often best considered using effective odds to the end while with weaker draws you will usually only be able to take one off (and then not every time). If you plan to go to the river, you need to correctly account for reasonable future bets if you want to use the odds to see the river. If you only plan to take one off, you use immediate pot odds (maybe throw in a little implied, but be judicious don't assume you will get to put in a raise on the turn and get called on the river with all 3 opponents tagging along).

So, in review:

1.) If you use the odds to see the river, you must take into account future bets you will have to call in order to make it to the river (My calculation above neglects that you don't have to always call a turn bet when behind, ie sometimes you hit the turn which makes the call even more favorable so be aware of that).

2.) If you will only have odds to take 1 off, then use the odds to see the next card only.

3.) Don't go crazy with implied odds. Stick to assuming you may be able to squeeze 1 BB out of an opponnet not 5 BB out of 3 opponents.

SheridanCat · #26 08-28-2005, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1.) If you use the odds to see the river, you must take into account future bets you will have to call in order to make it to the river....

[/ QUOTE ]

Dang, you're right. I forgot that part of effective odds. Dumb mistake on my part.

In any event, it's fortunate these days that we rarely have to consider such close situations when on a flush draw. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Regards,

T

OrianasDaad · #27 08-29-2005, 02:09 AM

Two-card flush draws should rarely be folded in a typical low-limit game.

There's nothing wrong with the concept of "fit or fold". Ironically, the idea behind this statement is present throughout SSHE. It has only been redefined by Mr. Miller in the chapter counting outs. In other words, he has taught us how to determine what, exactly, is a "fit."

TripleH68 · #28 08-30-2005, 01:54 AM

A hand I played just before reading your post. Whether I played it well is up for debate, but would you have folded here somewhere?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

River: (15 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 18 BB

Results in white below: 
MP1 has Ks 7s (two pair, kings and sevens).
MP2 has 5c 5h (three of a kind, fives).
Hero has Jc Qc (flush, king high).
Outcome: Hero wins 18 BB.

AKQJ10 · #29 08-30-2005, 07:53 AM

The only round that's even in doubt in my book is preflop, and I think cold calling with high suited connectors is fine. (You just have to worry about being dominated by hands like AJ or KK.)

Raising the flop for value is often a good play once several opponents are trapped in, but not here where there's a bet and a raise to your immediate right. Too bad MP2's raise chased out all your opponents except MP1, although she played it exactly right too -- charging you the maximum to draw out.

Note that you really didn't have nine outs on the river, because you're against a set -- you have seven outs. The 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are awful awful cards that will cost you some money. (You have to discount your pot odds slightly for the possibility that someone has a set or ace-high flush draw and you have fewer than 9 outs, although you don't know this to be true.) You also need to at least consider getting stuck in a raising war on the turn, making your price more than two big bets! Still, you're getting good enough odds to stay in.

Well played, and a nice pot.

MycroftX · #30 08-30-2005, 12:21 PM

Holy crap someone from Rhode Island.