NLO8/b Game, Bottom Trips

[Buzz]

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What do you do here? I was playing at a table where people would play almost any hand, and and no one was hitting trips.

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Nemmy - You bet.

As simulated you win about four hands out of five, but you only win half the pot when you win.

Whatever you bet, lets say two valuable chips, four times out of five you'll win half as much (one chip) and one time out of five you'll lose the two chips.

If you could make this bet five hundred times, you figure to net 200 chips.
Here's my math:
400*(+1) = +400
100*(-2) = -200
+400-200 = +200

It's even better than that, because your opponents have not been betting as though anyone has a higher set.

Since the odds are very much on your side, you bet what you can afford to lose.

I think you never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Just my opinion. I haven't read the other opinions yet. I'll read them after I post this. (Maybe someone else will already have written the same general idea as me, and my independent thinking will reinforce their idea).

Buzz

[jcx]

I knew I recognized your ID - your trip report on Flyertalk about Israel sucking was gold.


http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=446866

[Buzz]

dabigbadrook - What's a rook? Do you mean like in chess? Anyhow I like your posting picture.

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Bottom set on this flop is an insta fold to any bet. The lows are freerolling you let alone "established" high hands. You are fighting uphill against other sets also. Fighting for half the pot is a quick way to lose a lot.

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I don't know much about how best to play pot limit or no-limit Omaha-8. In a limit Omaha-8 game, I tend to avoid playing starting hands with small pairs so as to stay out of situations where I'll flop bottom set. For a full limit Omaha-8 game, in my humble opinion, this starting hand is horrid. But I have no idea how it works out in pot limit or no limit. I wouldn't even be reading this thread except that it looks like I'll be playing some pot limit Omaha-8 at the Bike in January (at the annual ESCARGOT) and so I had better try to learn something about how to play the game.

Anyhow, I simulated this hand/flop/board twice. Once for five players seeing the flop and then again for ten players seeing the flop. Against four opponents who also saw the flop, and assuming anyone who flopped a higher set would continue to the showdown, Hero won high in a four to one ratio. In the second simulation, against nine opponents who also saw the flop, and making the same assumption, Hero won high in a three to two ratio.

It needs to be noted that Hero has a couple of blockers (cards in his own hand that make it less probable an opponent holds a set). Maybe I should run some more sims without the blockers or with only one blocker to get a better idea of how flopped bottom set fares under different game conditions.

Of course if the flop had turned out differently, and then if the turn or river turned out differently, so that a straight or flush would be possible on the river, the situation would have been more grim for Hero.

I guess what I need to do next is run some simulations to see how Hero fares if a straight or flush is possible on the river. I'm wondering how many opponents (who will see the flop with random hands) to use. Maybe I'll just go play some poker and think about this on the drive to and from the casino - and then run the sims.

The number of opponents clearly makes a difference in Hero's odds. The exact cards involved also matter (more or less blockers and straights or flushes possible or not and when).

Just some rambling thoughts after having read the complete thread.

Buzz