Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me

[Tosh]

At first it looks like you have an overpair or maybe a set of 9's and waited to the turn to raise them. But I think that is exactly what you are trying to portray. You know that hero knows the pot is protected and you figure to have a good chance of folding him if he has something like jacks or tens. I personally put you on something like AK, maybe AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

My play would be to 3 bet you. I'm probably way wrong but I don't give you credit for an overpair here.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi shemp,

[ QUOTE ]
Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is my math off?

He's getting 12.25 to 1 on his turn call. He's 22-1 to spike a Jack.

That's too big a gap if he's only good here 10% of the time, even factoring in Loosey's actions and his implied odds when hitting his Jack. Not to mention he could lose to a redraw on the river. Correct?

Regards,
Jamie

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're good 10% of the time, you only need 9:1 to call to break even. (Not even counting the small redraw to the J)

[tpir90036]

you are certainly capable of throwing a move here....especailly with the 3rd person in protecting the pot....which you hope that i am aware of. at this point i have you on either an A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] semi-bluff or QQ. i call down but could fold the river if it is ugly.

[Jamie Collins]

Thanks for the reply SossMan,
Help me out on the math.

Let's make this as simple for me as possible by calculating just the pot odds for the turn only and assume loosey folds.

1 time in ten he will win 12.25

and 9 times in ten he will donate 1 BB each time - I'm assuming that's where the 9:1 comes from.

Ok I think I was making it too difficult on myself.
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Now if you factor in loosey's call of Dynasty's raise, even better odds right? However, which is greater: the odds of JJ getting drawn out on the river if he's ahead or his implied odds if he's behind and spikes a J?

My guess is even if the former is greater than the latter it's not enough to compensate for the 3.25 (12.25-9) overlay.

I'll leave the math posts to the smart guys!

Regards,
Jamie

[CrackerZack]

I agree with your assessment, but think AcKc (less likely AcQc since 3-bet PF) isn't unreasonable for Dynasty trying to make a move on this pot. I'm not a huge fan of this move here, but it could get a better hand to fold winning the pot if the weak player is drawing too.

Edit: i fold if it isn't obvious.

[jonnyv]

You have to think that Dynasty wants the good player to fold to get heads up with the weak player. The weak player will not fold anyway so Dynasty probably has a smaller pocket pair than jacks and wants the good player out.

[DcifrThs]

I haven't read any posts yet so here goes:

your 3betting hands against this player: tt, jj, qq, kk, aa, ako(s). i'm assuming you call b/c of the weak player in and to invite others with aqs and other suited aces and pairs to create a volume pot. maybe even tt is out of that 3 betting catagory but i'll leave it in for now.

now, given how you played, with what hands would you now raise on the turn. HERE tt drops. no way you'd do that on the turn with tt, its just too likely hed have a higher pair. you COULD, however, semibluff raise here with AKs clubs. and against that hand he should 3 bet you. but he won't because you coul dhave qq, kk, aa which would also likely be played in the same way. 1 way for AcKc, 6 ways for the 3 higher pairs, and 1 way for a tie of jj. 10.5 bets on the flop, 16.5=8.25 bb's on the turn, 12.25bbs when it gets back to the hero with JJ. it would cost 2 now to call and check and call. so 2 bets to win (assuming weaky stays the whole way and loses to both of you) to win 16 includuing your calls. so 8:1 effective odds. but its 18 ways for the 3 higher pairs and 1 way for aks and 1 way for a jj tie (which i'll include as half a win) so 18:1.5 so 12:1 you're behind. hero should fold getting 8:1 effective odds.

thats posterior justification, something we don't have at the table. personally, against you dynasty theres just too many ways to be behind here and i fold. he should too. the only way calling is correct is if you can add additional hands to those with which you 3bet, bet the flop, call a c-r and then raise the turn. if you add tt, then you're looking at 18:7.5 and he should call the whole way since there are 6 ways for you to have tt. that gives him 2.4:1 getting 8:1 effective odds. one hand switches a call to a fold and vice versa...i guess if i'd seen you do tricky stuff like play AcQc the same way then id call or since its a protected pot you'd do some tricky stuff then ok...but again, tricky spot against a good player. i'd have to fold here though most of the time since you did 3bet preflop.

nice hand great post.

-Barron

[Clarkmeister]

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Clark,

I 3-bet. Calling has to be the worst of the options.

I agree that calling is the worst option. However, what do you put Dynasty on that you are ahead. Precisely TT? Maybe, but doubtful, 88?


[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think Dynasty puts the fishy guy on? I'm guessing a draw, and that turn card didn't help a draw.

[DcifrThs]

c'mon clark...under what assumptions are you threebetting.

read my post and come back and tell me you 3bet dynasty here. the only way thats possible is if you KNOW and have seen him do other stuff that what i assume in my post.

this ain't the 4-8 and you don't have k2o so just lay it down man.
-Barron

[DcifrThs]

shemp,

read my post. 8:1 effective odds on the call down. 10% he thought his hand was good. thats 10/100 1/10 or 9:1. not enough.
-Barron