Gimme your critique (Grunch it)

[mlb3zr]

I like a reraise on the river. You may lose BB, but you might not and I'm willing to take the chance that he will call two more. Even if you lose BB, maybe UTG will cap with what certainly looks like trips. But I am not great about the whole overcall thing. I am essentially never concerned about a full house, as you would have heard from a set or two pair earlier.

[VBM]

i'm on the fence about the PFR OOP vs 2. i think b/c there are a bunch of flops that i don't want to make a continuation bet on (tho, i know it's not written in stone that you have to) and now, there are 6SB (vs 3) for me to try and win...

the rest seems fine to me.

[droolie]

I'm raising this river. I really like our chances of winning this pot and I think BB and UTG call enough to make raising +EV over just going for one overcall. The rest is pretty standard.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm on the fence about the PFR OOP vs 2. i think b/c there are a bunch of flops that i don't want to make a continuation bet on (tho, i know it's not written in stone that you have to) and now, there are 6SB (vs 3) for me to try and win...

the rest seems fine to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't much like the preflop raise. It's probably marginal at best.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
My feeling is that we're good here about 90% of the time.

We lose 2 bets when we're no good (10%)

of the times we're good (90%):
Sometimes Villain will cap with trips (7.5% of 90%) +2 BB
Somestimes BB will cold-call (7.5% of 90%) +3 BB
BB folds, Villain calls (85% of 90%) +1 BB

(.1)(-2)+(.075)(.9)(2)+(.075)(.9)(3)+(.85)(.9)(1)
EV = -.2 + .135 + .2025 + .765 = 1.1025 BB

Or, another way (x = % our flush is good on the river)

(1-x)(-2)+.15x+.225x+.85x = 0
-2+2x+1.225x=0
3.225x = 2
x = .620

Given these percentages, we need to be good on the river a little less than 2/3s of the time to 3-bet. I think we're good here a sizable portion above that, so I rizzle.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice analysis. Except I think we are good here closer to 95% of the time.

Krishan

[Shillx]

Or, another way (x = % our flush is good on the river)

(1-x)(-2)+.15x+.225x+.85x = 0
-2+2x+1.225x=0
3.225x = 2
x = .620

The problem is that you have to adjust for how many times that we get the overcall. Let's say for example that the dude overcalls 70% of the time.

Or, another way (x = % our flush is good on the river)

(1-x)(-2)+.15x+.225x+.85x = .7
-2+2x+1.225x=.7
3.225x = 2.7
x = .837

Brad

[krishanleong]

The essence of this hand is whether or not UTG can have a full house here on the river.

I think some people are getting stuck on the read. At 2/4 loose passive is probably reasonably agressive at .5/1. Given that this is also a shorthand table means you can kick up the expected agression another notch. A postflop agression factor of 1 means both opponents do raise a fair amount.

Given that more detailed read, it is nearly impossible for UTG to have a full house. 99% of the time he would have raised either the flop or turn with two pair or a set. He is in ideal position to extract bets on the turn as well.

The most likely hand for him to have is trip jacks. You should also consider the way we have played our hand. Since we led the flop, our flush is partially concealed. From UTG's perspective we could have nearly anything. A flush is far from his mind. Raising trips Jacks in this spot is a no-brainer.

Given that we are always ahead of UTG, the best river line is to reraise. You will always get 1 bet from UTG.

I think people are being results oriented when they say the BB will always call for 1. In my experience this is close to 80%.

Other have posted the analysis required if you are not sure you have the best hand on the river. You have to consider the times the BB will call 2, the times he'll call 2, the times you'll be capped by a worse/better hand and so forth. But when you have the best hand as often as we do, you can skip the analysis and pump the pot.

Krishan

[meep_42]

I'm getting a little different -- but you're right. I've taken 1 BB off all the expected values to adjust for a 100% overcall. (Expected values are now what we'd expect to make above and beyond an overcall)

(.1)(-1)+(.075)(.9)(1)+(.075)(.9)(2)+(.85)(.9)(0)
-(1-x)+.0675x+.135x+0=0
-1+x+.2025x=0
1.2025x=1
x=.832

It's a lot closer, and against a really passive Villain, I may just call, but otherwise, i'm raising here, especially with a fishy SB.

(And I agree with the above respondant, I think we're good here almost all the time as J9 would have tossed a raise somewhere, I'd imagine, and all other possibilities seem poor -- another flush isn't unlikely either.)

-d

[krishanleong]

link to HUSH thoughts on the hand

[Black Aces 518]

I don't like the preflop raise. You're looking at playing A6 suited OOP, and you aren't going to narrow the field any further (or have a large enough field to pay off big hands).

Flop is fine.

Turn is fine.

River, I'm torn between 3 betting and calling looking for overcalls. I do not fear a boat. I think UTG pays off a 3 bet everytime, and will cap with trip Js or a boat. So we lose less when behind this way. The question is are we behind more or less often than BB will call a 3 bet? BB looks pretty much like he's decided to come all the way, so I'm 3 betting.