welcome to the rock.

[Redd]

But this guy's numbers suggest that he doesn't raise AK here; even if we assume a decent deviation of like 3% true pfr AKs basically isn't in his hand range. Plus these super-tp types are usually more inclined to raise with big pairs than big overs regardless of if they're in the top x% of hands.

[Reqtech]

Muzzizzle yo carzizzles.

Against a rocky rock McRockerson, you'd be playing this hand for set value. You're looking at best 4 opponents, though it's more likely 3 since there's a good chance that SB folds.
And what if one of the blinds are LAGGROS? They could raise it up. But if that's the case, you shouldn't be at that table (rock to right and lags to left SUCKS)

I was quite sure I had "noticed" a class of rock that never raises the big pairs but, instead, seems to like to raise the odd medium pair (thinking maybe he's walking the "wild side" and bluffing out a TAG or two). But... upon checking my PT stats by setting the V$IP player filter to less than 15% and the PFR filter to less than 2% a different picture emerges where the overwhelming hands that such players raise with is AA, KK, and QQ. There was the one time that a rockie did raise with 88 and there was and occasional AKs and AQs but AA, KK seem to be the main choice for these types. So I guess I would have to (now) say that folding is the correct play.

Does anyone see anything different in PT??

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
But this guy's numbers suggest that he doesn't raise AK here; even if we assume a decent deviation of like 3% true pfr AKs basically isn't in his hand range. Plus these super-tp types are usually more inclined to raise with big pairs than big overs regardless of if they're in the top x% of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

1% PFR is about 13.25 hands (1326 total starting hands). There are 6 pocket aces and 6 6 pocket kings. That makes up most of the 1%. If you give the HUD a 3% error, he could be raising as many as about 53 hands, and you'll have a tough time reaching that number without including AK. In fact, you'll have a tough time getting up to 2% (given that you have JJ) without getting some AK hands thrown in.

[RatFink]

I've had 150 hand sesssions where I was running at 9% and trust me if I ever got even an AJo/88+/KQ I'd be raising the damn thing.

1% PFR is small, but 150 hands isn't a true picture of anyones soul.

[Marquis]

So you have 150 hands on this guy. I'll assume he's raised twice, which would put his pfr at 1.33%. That could mean he raises AA, KK and AKs (1.2%), or AA, KK, and QQ (1.4%), or some other range and he's running hot/cold. But what you really need to do is determine how likely it is that after 150 hands a 1.33 pfr guy raises a range that includes hands like AQo and other hands that you have a chance against, do some fancy math, and go from there. Maybe this guy doesn't raise any hands from the blinds, which opens up his range out of the blinds somewhat. My experience is that this read is actually very solid and folding is probably right, but I'm sure I'd be drunk enough to 3-bet anyway.

As a side note, if I've played 150 hands with this idiot I'm bound to have a note on him that says he's limped with a premium hand, which lets me really narrow his range down. Sans that note, I raise.

Get a new mouse. Yours has jizzle on the button.

[SlantNGo]

[ QUOTE ]
1% PFR is about 13.25 hands (1326 total starting hands). There are 6 pocket aces and 6 6 pocket kings. That makes up most of the 1%. If you give the HUD a 3% error, he could be raising as many as about 53 hands, and you'll have a tough time reaching that number without including AK. In fact, you'll have a tough time getting up to 2% (given that you have JJ) without getting some AK hands thrown in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you played live before Aaron? Lots of low-limit loose-passive players will raise AA-QQ and maybe even JJ while limping AK. It's also definitely a possibility for a rock.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1% PFR is about 13.25 hands (1326 total starting hands). There are 6 pocket aces and 6 6 pocket kings. That makes up most of the 1%. If you give the HUD a 3% error, he could be raising as many as about 53 hands, and you'll have a tough time reaching that number without including AK. In fact, you'll have a tough time getting up to 2% (given that you have JJ) without getting some AK hands thrown in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you played live before Aaron? Lots of low-limit loose-passive players will raise AA-QQ and maybe even JJ while limping AK. It's also definitely a possibility for a rock.

[/ QUOTE ]

My live experience is limited, but I know that some players play as you have described. This isn't really the point.

AA-JJ gives you 24 hands, which is less than 2%. You need to throw in a couple AK hands to push it all the way up to 2%. You can say that you're rounding up to get to 2%, and I won't argue with you. But the point is that the stats are limited (1% error in the PFR is unreasonably tight - I was responding specifically to a 3% error situation). You can't deny the possibility that AK is getting raised here based on PFR = 1 alone. If Hero had notes or something to go with the stats, it would be a different story.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But this guy's numbers suggest that he doesn't raise AK here; even if we assume a decent deviation of like 3% true pfr AKs basically isn't in his hand range. Plus these super-tp types are usually more inclined to raise with big pairs than big overs regardless of if they're in the top x% of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

1% PFR is about 13.25 hands (1326 total starting hands). There are 6 pocket aces and 6 6 pocket kings. That makes up most of the 1%. If you give the HUD a 3% error, he could be raising as many as about 53 hands, and you'll have a tough time reaching that number without including AK. In fact, you'll have a tough time getting up to 2% (given that you have JJ) without getting some AK hands thrown in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that suggesting a 3% margin of error is appropriate. This is a statistical question: What is the likelyhood of this sample being representative of the entire data set. It is quite possible that his best hand in this data set, the one that he decided to raise with was AJo. More accurately, we need a figure like: what is the probability of having AA-QQ not present in random sample of 150 hands. This should help us decide to make the call. I'm chintzing out on math again, because it's 5 p.m...time to go home.

grizzle...

i treybizzle to maximizzle my chizzles at wizzling the pizzle. if he cizzles i expizzle airlizzles or cowbizzles and slizzle the fizzle dizzle....

even with his low pfrizzle stizzles, i still expect big slizzle sizzled and offsizzle to be a big sizzle of his rangizzle, even banizzles (AQ) are possizzle. when this is the cizzle, i want the chizzle to get this pizzle heads up....