Matt Matros article in Cardplayer about coinflips

[SoloAJ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i call 55 in a heartbeat...

ask yourself this, would you do it if the buy in was $10 instead of $10,000 of course you would! now go back to the $10 games where you can make good decisions. 10k will be a penny in no time.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what you're saying... is that if you knew you where 75% better than your opponent... and your EV was positive every time you played him... you would take a 55% coin-flip to beat him? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I hope people don't back you in heads up tournaments. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to remember that we aren't heads up, so don't bring that into the conversation. You are at a table with 8 other guys thinking the same thing you are. So even if you are 75% to beat him overall, you really are only about 11% to even get the chance to be the one who takes him out.

So yes, you should call as a 55% even if you are 75% better. Because that 75% really translates into about 9%. Hope that helps.

-Solo

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]

i call 55 in a heartbeat, then again my tournament entry is pennies to me and life is one long poker game. like doyle i'd bet it all on a coinflip getting 55-45, ive been broke before, its no biggie.

furthermore, he may be the worst player and now you have his sorry ass all to yourself...why give him back to the rest of the table?

and...many top players go broke in the first few orbits because of plays exactly like this...thats why they are top players, theats why you know them and they dont know you.

ask yourself this, would you do it if the buy in was $10 instead of $10,000 of course you would! now go back to the $10 games where you can make good decisions. 10k will be a penny in no time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice.

You should post here more often, not just in NL/PL.

This forum would be better for it.

Regards,
Woodguy

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
ask yourself this, would you do it if the buy in was $10 instead of $10,000 of course you would!

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course I wouldn't, because in a $10 I can double up 70% of the time by randomly pushing kings UTG and having AJo call.

Matt might be right on second thought, though, because for that matter I wasn't thinking about having a 300% edge at the WSOP when I made that post. How many total donks are there in the main event?

[A_PLUS]

I have some further clarity about his use of 22,000 vs 10,000 when comparing the future edge you would need.

Basically, you have 20,000 after a coin flip, after a set number of hands, you can expect to turn that into 22,000.

When you pass, you have 10K. What % of the time can you turn that 10K into 22K? It isnt meant to be read for only all-in situations.

Your chips are expected to increase (b/c you are a winning player). If you played a million tournaments, you would have a good idea of how your chips are expected to grow given a certain number of hands. Forgetting about the benefits of using a big stack. You have some ground to make up to get your 10K distribution to catch up to your 20K distribution.

Will you reach the 20K distribution levels with a greater frequency than you would win the coin flip? If so, pass on the flip. If not, take the flip.

Basically, people overestimate the % of time they reach the level of chips they would have if they started with 20K.

[Jason Strasser]

I want to be you.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
If you follow Matros' logic, then you call with everything down to about 55, or you fold with everything. Who in their right mind would do that?

[/ QUOTE ]

????

God, I see people make this argument all the time..."dude, would you have called me with 22?!?" "You knew I mightve had AK so why not call with 22?" As though they just figured out that day that 22 and QQ are both flips verus AK.

Anwyay, Matros uses the unlikely example of seeing his opponent's cards (AK) so we know we are a flip..so 55 is fine for his example. This has nothing to do with the theory.

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you follow Matros' logic, then you call with everything down to about 55, or you fold with everything. Who in their right mind would do that?

[/ QUOTE ]

????

God, I see people make this argument all the time..."dude, would you have called me with 22?!?" "You knew I mightve had AK so why not call with 22?" As though they just figured out that day that 22 and QQ are both flips verus AK.

Anwyay, Matros uses the unlikely example of seeing his opponent's cards (AK) so we know we are a flip..so 55 is fine for his example. This has nothing to do with the theory.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but.. dude. Cmon. Queens like.. look real big and stuff. just look at how 5s look. I mean, they're FIVES for pete's sake. And queens, are QUEENS. See what I'm getting at?

[Exitonly]

also, q's are like 3% better.

[A_PLUS]

I have a problem with his calculation

When he explains how to find the "necessary edge" that you are waiting for by folding QQ, he uses 22000 as the expected chips stack in the future when you win the first coin flip. But He only uses 10000 as the comparison stack size when you pass.

With blinds as low as they are, shouldnt the 2000 extra chips still be won by someone who passes on the coin flip?

[jacksup]

The idea is to compare rewards. So if I pass on the ak/qq spot, the reward is that I'll have a better chance to get to 20k later. I won't necessarily have a better chance to get all my chips in at once. In fact, a lot of players think the main reason to pass on the edge is that they'd rather try to double up by hammering away at small pots.

If I take the ak/qq spot, the reward is that I have a 53.8% chance (or whatever I said the number was) to have 20k right now. 20k right now is worth more than 20k at some point down the road. So Bill Chen had the idea to use something like 21k or 22k as the future stack size in order to account for this difference. There's no way to know what the number should be exactly, but I think anything in the 21k-23k is reasonable. The point is just that if you had, say, a 53.9% to get to 20k at some later time, then you should definitely take the 53.8% shot now, because the chips are worth more if you get them earlier.

Best,
Matt