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#21
09-19-2005, 08:59 PM
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Disagree
[ QUOTE ]
and medium stakes has turned into a "who's running good will now give out advice" forum. [/ QUOTE ] It's just wrong concept in my opinion. No one takes seriously people who are proud of 5bb/100 after 20K. But when this is after 50K - i will be the first who will ask for a DB. People who're "running good" after 40-50K hands with your description have quite more probability to be top players then those who running average or bad and have lesser EV. Of course you can't compare your winrate of 1 and think you're worse player with someone who has 1.7 after 70-80K hands. But you really can say if someone after 50K has winrate of 4bb/100 and you have 1bb/100 - that he plays better than you with 90%+ probability and listen to his advices. 
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#22
09-19-2005, 09:05 PM
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Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
I tend to disagree...well, sort of...
While I agree that how you are actually doing over 25K hands is not much help in figuring out where you might be after 500K hands, your own subjective but honest analysis of your play in comparison with the competition should enable you to have some idea where you should end up in the long term (assuming competition remains at the same level). In live play, you can roughly size up where you stand at a given table in about an hour. It takes longer online given the number of players you might face, lack of visual clues etc. but nevertheless, one should have a pretty good idea after playing "X" hands. I don't know what X is exactly, but IMO it's certainly not 200K or even 100K.
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#23
09-19-2005, 09:24 PM
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Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
There has to be some math to settle this. I don't know much about stats, but I have to think that given a standard deviation, you can tell exactly how many hands you need to get your win rate to +/- .1 BB/100. Anyone know I'm wrong or want to do the math if I'm right? If I'm right, this should have been settled a long time ago.
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#24
09-19-2005, 09:30 PM
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Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
[ QUOTE ]
There has to be some math to settle this. I don't know much about stats, but I have to think that given a standard deviation, you can tell exactly how many hands you need to get your win rate to +/- .1 BB/100. Anyone know I'm wrong or want to do the math if I'm right? If I'm right, this should have been settled a long time ago. [/ QUOTE ] It gets settled every single time it comes up, but it's hard to grasp.
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#25
09-19-2005, 09:40 PM
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Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
[ QUOTE ]
I tend to disagree...well, sort of... While I agree that how you are actually doing over 25K hands is not much help in figuring out where you might be after 500K hands, your own subjective but honest analysis of your play in comparison with the competition should enable you to have some idea where you should end up in the long term (assuming competition remains at the same level). In live play, you can roughly size up where you stand at a given table in about an hour. It takes longer online given the number of players you might face, lack of visual clues etc. but nevertheless, one should have a pretty good idea after playing "X" hands. I don't know what X is exactly, but IMO it's certainly not 200K or even 100K. [/ QUOTE ] I usually know where I stand at a table in a few orbits. Knowing if you are a favorite in a game is far different from knowing your exact winrate - or even calculating your winrate within 1 bb/100. GoT did some calculations and concluded that it's possible for a "true" 1.8/100 winner to win like 3+bb/100 or .5ish bb/100. Combine this with the fact that players are bound to change their play from the beginning of a meaningful stretch of hand to the end, and obsessing over your bb/100 rate is little more than an act in futility. -James
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#26
09-20-2005, 12:05 AM
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Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
In retrospect, I now think that we are in agreement. At least, I agree with what you are saying. I am simply saying that after X number of hands, you should have a feel for where you might be in the long run in terms of bb/100 but whether or not you actually are at it (plus or minus) is quite another matter.
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#27
09-20-2005, 12:10 AM
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Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
[ QUOTE ]
obsessing over your bb/100 rate is little more than an act in futility. -James [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] 5BB/100 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 3BB/100 [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] 2BB/100 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 1BB/100 [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] 0.5BB/100 [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] 0BB/100 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] -1BB/100 [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] -2BB/100
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#28
09-20-2005, 01:05 AM
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Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
[ QUOTE ]
nice post. welcome. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks, ive been a long time reader, and am a regular at the 30/60 game. When I saw this opportunity for comedy I had to take it.
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#30
09-20-2005, 01:13 AM
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How bout people respond
by filling in the following blank:
My stats tell me that I am 95% sure my win rate is greater than _________. You win rate - 1.67*s.d. should do it. Seems like a pretty simple way to get around all this sample size stuff.
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Linear Mode
