100/200 bluff hand

[ggbman]

Hah, no you don't. I feel like such a dope everytime i see someone going "well lets see, there are x combos of this" and i'm sitting back here picking my nose life wtf?

[Drontier]

I'll trade you math skills for poker skills. deal?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Hah, no you don't. I feel like such a dope everytime i see someone going "well lets see, there are x combos of this" and i'm sitting back here picking my nose life wtf?

[/ QUOTE ]

Get someone to teach you how to apply baysian analysis. It would be worth it to you. Maybe is Josh comes up with a good spreadsheet you can use that.

You are more than bright enough to master this. (This isn't a complement. It's like 6th grade math) [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Krishan

[ggbman]

If i recall correctly, i am somewhat familiar with Bayes. It that theorum that Ed Miller discussed when he gave the analogy of that loaded gun right? I would probably benefit from a better mathamatical understanding of the game, i have some posts saved, i just need to take the time to examine/apply them.

[Surfbullet]

my biggest qualm with this:

Since he knows you're overaggro, I'd say he probably calls the turn raise with any hand he expects to be a 6-outer, hoping to pair up on the river. In that case, you'd have to bluff the river as well...which is mitigated somewhat by the fact that you hit YOUR 6-outer sometimes too...

If you can safely fold to a 3bet then this might actually be worth it, because when he flat-calls his hand range includes many hands that will fold to a river bet (because who bluffraises the turn on a 7722 board and puts in a river value bet without a hand?).

This is a tough one. I'm going to have to think about it some more.

Surf

[ggbman]

Everything you said here is correct, especially the fact that this is a tough one. In any event, villian called the turn raise and we checked through the river. He had AK and MHING.

I posted this because i thought it was a good example of when a bluff might be appropriate that people don't try too often. I could still be wrong about this play being +EV, but i liked the hand in general, particularly because my turn raise also is going to freeze hands that want to bet this river, and it has some immideiate folding equity. (It's difficult for this player to correctly 3 bet 77 on this turn) So there it is, take what you will from it.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
(It's difficult for this player to correctly 3 bet 77 on this turn) So there it is, take what you will from it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should move up then. I could 3-bet quads in a heartbeat in this spot. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Krishan

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(It's difficult for this player to correctly 3 bet 77 on this turn) So there it is, take what you will from it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should move up then. I could 3-bet quads in a heartbeat in this spot. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Krishan

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Not only do i suck at math, i suck at typing 66. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]

I posted this because i thought it was a good example of when a bluff might be appropriate that people don't try too often. I could still be wrong about this play being +EV, but i liked the hand in general, particularly because my turn raise also is going to freeze hands that want to bet this river, and it has some immideiate folding equity. (It's difficult for this player to correctly 3 bet 77 on this turn) So there it is, take what you will from it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I liked the hand too, and the general idea. Another thing to note is that it would have been better if the turn card didn't bring a flush draw....that almost certainly commits us to betting the river if we want a reasonable amount of FE - since he'll call A- and K-hi hands expecting you to take a free showdown with a FD and HHIG. If the turn was a complete blank I think this play would be more effective(surprisingly).

Surf