Snakes on a Plane

[SomethingClever]

This thread wouldn't be complete without the following.

[El Ishmael]

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This thread wouldn't be complete without the following.



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Amazing!

[Surfbullet]

Wow SC, that's HILARIOUS.

Surf

[SomethingClever]

Sorry.

this is cracking my s*** up

[kidcolin]

Your name is so damn literal. This is awesome.

[TStoneMBD]

betting the flop is a mistake. good checkraise. betting the flop accomplishes nothing unless you plan to fold when shown aggression. checkraising allows us to extract value and fold the turn UI when we lead and a player raises.

i dont like folding the turn but thats because i put the opponents on a different hand range then what everyone here seems to be putting them on. to say that this hand isnt post worthy is bullshit, because you can go ahead and assign hand ranges to your opponents and do the calculation yourself, you know how to do that im sure, but youre clearly posting this hand because you arent sure what hand ranges to put the players on.

UTG has played his hand like a probable 1 pair hand, button could have alot of hands and you could be ahead of a good chunk of them.

getting 12:1 if the UTG doesnt cap or 13:2 if he does (not all that often) is more than enough imo to chase your 4 outter with a good chance in having the best hand.


btw, i doubt excel is doing everything josh thinks it does, because hes probably using it to assign hand ranges and do an equity calculation, but what he almost certainly isnt doing is he isnt assigning likelihood to those hand ranges. some hand ranges are more probable than others. to make TT, AT and JQ all equally likely holdings according to combinations is a mistake because TT probably 3bets preflop, and AT probably as well. TT will raise this flop while the others might not. all the other possible holdings for both players have to go through likelihood combinations as well.

to simply say that this hand can be solved in excel is a mistake and youre making the forum worse, not better by making everyone think that. im all for doing equity calculations but not when they are done wrong or are being misused.

[jason_t]

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btw, i doubt excel is doing everything josh thinks it does, because hes probably using it to assign hand ranges and do an equity calculation, but what he almost certainly isnt doing is he isnt assigning likelihood to those hand ranges. some hand ranges are more probable than others.

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I'm sure you know what I mean here. make a range of hands, figure out your outs vs each, the number of combos, make some judgment weights for the combos, then do an EV calc.

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betting the flop is a mistake. good checkraise. betting the flop accomplishes nothing unless you plan to fold when shown aggression. checkraising allows us to extract value and fold the turn UI when we lead and a player raises.

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you don't think 3-way a player this aggressive player raises AK on a super draw heavy board against a donk bet?

[TStoneMBD]

they might, there is certainly a percentage of time when the AK will raise. i dont know what percentage i would go with on that, it depends on alot of factors of course.

if AK raises it allows the coldcaller to correctly fold his hand when its incorrect to pay 2 bets. by checkraising he is forced to pay those 2 bets so you make him make the mistake rather than allowing to escape it.

you said that you like taking a donk/call, donk/call, checkfold line which seems reasonable if you do decide to donk the flop, but notice that you ended up paying alot of bets to finally arrive at the conclusion that your hand isnt good. donking didnt net you any more value and it didnt save you any bets.

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they might, there is certainly a percentage of time when the AK will raise. i dont know what percentage i would go with on that, it depends on alot of factors of course.

if AK raises it allows the coldcaller to correctly fold his hand when its incorrect to pay 2 bets. by checkraising he is forced to pay those 2 bets so you make him make the mistake rather than allowing to escape it.

you said that you like taking a donk/call, donk/call, checkfold line which seems reasonable if you do decide to donk the flop, but notice that you ended up paying alot of bets to finally arrive at the conclusion that your hand isnt good. donking didnt net you any more value and it didnt save you any bets.

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it costs one extra SB than calling down and you stop free cards, which are a big consideration. this guy raises AK close to 100%, and AQ and AJ and AT IMO