QQ flop decision

[Rick Nebiolo]

Mike,

I'll answer without looking at the others just for drill.

Your pre flop three bet after several cold callers has marked you with very big suited cards, AK (I would think) or a big pair. Your opponents don't know how big a pair or which suit so I'd tend to raise on the flop. If the SB three bets you won't lose diamond draws but you might lose some middle pairs and back door draws (which you want with a pot this big). Meanwhile it sounds like you will be at least calling the SB down anyway since he sounds like the type who will reraise with a worse hand as often as a better hand. If the SB just calls (this is unlikely) you won't lose anyone but you take a little bit of control of the hand.

OTOH, the alternative of calling and waiting for the turn to pop it isn't too bad. First, the turn may come very bad (e.g. a diamond, an ace or a king) and you may be slowing down against a bet or tossing your hand against a bet and legit raise. In this case you'd be happy the pot is smaller. Second, if the turn comes good the SB is likely to lead bet and trap some players in between the two of you. You should be making money in this spot since you should still have the best hand about 40% of the time or so.

Regards,

Rick

[Ulysses]

I've been going back and forth on this for a while, but I think I have it now.

Raise.

Sometimes stoned guy will just call and the other three will call. Then they'll check to you and all call the turn. So, worst case, you lose out on two big bets vs. calling the flop and raising the turn w/ everyone calling.

Sometimes stoned guy will 3-bet and they will all call in the middle. And you'll call. Then with a good looking turn for you, you'll raise. This will get you four extra big bets vs. calling the flop and raising the turn.

Sometimes stoned guy will 3-bet and someone in the middle will fold. That is awesome.

Sometimes stoned guy will call your raise and checkraise you on the turn and multiple guys in the middle will fold. That is awesome.

Sometimes the turn will be really ugly and you'll get to see the river for half price if you so desire.

Yeah, I think raising is better.

[Ulysses]

Oh yeah, I thought of one more thing.

Some of these guys (I play with the same guys as mike, just in different cities) who would put in two big bets on the turn w/ nothing (just an Ace-high for example) if you call the flop then raise the turn, may well fold for one turn bet if you raise the flop.

I know what some of you are thinking. That doesn't make any sense. How could these guys fold for one big bet in a bigger pot? Here's how:

Lots of money in the pot. They're in there w/ crap.

Scenario 1:

SB bets flop. (Dude in middle) OK, whatever, I'll call and see if I get an Ace on the turn. Everyone calls. OK, cool, nobody has anything, otherwise they would have raised.

SB bets turn. [Dude in middle] OK, whatever, nothing has changed here, I'll call. Everyone calls. Mike raises. [Dude in middle] Damn, I guess that dude has something. Oh well, I already called this much, might as well see if there's an Ace on the river. Call.

Scenario 2:

SB bets flop. (see above) mike l. raises. [Dude in middle] I guess that dude has something. I hope I get an Ace on the turn. Call.

Everyone checks to mike. mike bets. [Dude in middle] Well, that dude already has something and I haven't put much in, so I might as well fold.

[Vehn]

I can't believe we're spending this much time discussing what some stoned guy may or may not do.

p.s. in most of my play against LARSG's they just call the flop raise because they have nothing, but may continue to bet the turn if not raised because they like betting.

[chesspain]

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I can't believe we're spending this much time discussing what some stoned guy may or may not do.


[/ QUOTE ]

You sound like one of my college roommates [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[ML4L]

Hey Mike,

For whatever it's worth, I agree with Ulysses' logic. I think this is one of those hands where the advanced and unadvanced player both end up playing it the same way (but for different reasons...). Raise and hope that SB 3-bets.

Obviously, the decision is very close, because as vehn pointed out, SB will probably shut down more often than not and it'll be checked to you on the turn, which is bad. So, because the decision is a toss-up, I think the important thing is that anyone reading this thread understands the logic behind each option rather than worrying about deciding on the "right" answer...

Glad that it worked out...

ML4L

[RollaJ]

call flop, raise the turn assuming no scare card. This will cut off peoples odds. If you raise now even 22 has odds to peel one off, let alone 5-9o which has as many as 5 clean outs