bluffing in micro limits

[pryor15]

since my original comments started this, i'll give an example from the other day

villain is pretty weak-tight and i've seen him wilt under aggression a couple times.

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: pryor15 is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">8 folds</font>, SB completes, pryor15 checks

Flop: (1 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">pryor15 bets</font>, SB folds.

Final Pot: 1 BB

obviously, i don't have the best hand right here, and there's a good chance i won't be able to improve the board when all is said and done (and this isn't the best example, but so be it). the key thing is i had a bit of a read on the player, he open-limped in the SB (usually a sign of weakness), and didn't bet the flop (meaning it probably didn't help him), so i figured i could take this down pretty easily. voila! a bluff.

[johnc]

Bluffing at micros can be +EV, but (big but) circumstances must be correct. I'm not inclined to bluff just "mix" things up or meet some arbitrary bluffing frequency. IMO bluffing must meet a number of important requirements in order to suceed:

1) Table selection. Loose/passives who like to see lots of cheap flops are what I call prospecting - hoping to hit with otherwise marginal or crap hands.

2) Tight/aggressive strategy will create an table image to your opponents that you play "only" strong, winning hands. Having shown down some really good hands w/aggressive betting/raising is key here and puts a little fear in their heads. This also helps you obtain control of the action with your opponents seeing you as dictating their next move.

3) Ability to get useful reads on your opponents. Examples such as folding to bets on paired boards, slowing down when raised (even with the best hand), folding to drawing hands.
All of these (and certainly more) indicate opportunities for me to capitalize on percieved weakness.

4) Lastly, I almost never attempt to bluff known hard-core calling stations. They are loose and weak but their style is extremely if not totally effective against the bluff. IMO, loosing to a very weak hand that only beats a bluff with one these types is very bad for your table image and gives others at the table the impression that they can take shots at you (by bluffing themselves or calling down marginal holdings in the face of your future bluffs or semi-bluffs).

[tor]

*grunching*

I don't know *why* you would bet here. If he's bluffing he'll probably fold. If he's slowplaying, he'll call and beat you or re-raise. If he just hit two pair, trips, or a straight, he'll call and beat you or raise. You only win here against a complete bluff (which raising is no good for) or against a low pair.

[tiltaholic]

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anyway. so what percentage of the time do you think is this a bluff?

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I think I'm getting bluffed much less than 10% of the time on the river. If this happens on the turn, then I think 10% or even a bit more is right. You've mentioned that the player is a bit loose but at least semi-thinking. If I suspect a player like this is making a move, I immediately think about how I've played the last few orbits to find any of my behavior which makes me look susceptible.

If I've ended up betting and missing some flush draws and he's seen that, then maybe I give a 10% chance of a river bluff. I guess roughly the same if he's seen me bet every street with a whiffed AK (which I don't do very often.). If I haven't done any of these things lately, I put the bluff percentage closer to 5% or less.

So here, I call when I'm pretty sure I'm beat for the following reasons:
1) If I fold, the likelihood of this happening to me again goes way up.
2) If he's not bluffing, I want to know why he took this line against me. It also doesn't cost me anything since I would have gone into check/call mode if he had popped this on the turn instead.

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fair enough. i honestly can't say why i figured he'd bluff 10% of the time. i doubt i could bring myself to fold but i often wonder if i should (ie, is the %age he's bluffing much less than 10%). i guess its player and session specific.

turns out he had A4o and it was a monster river bluff raise.

mhwg

still don't know if it was correct...