|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Some math that\'s supposed to help me figure out SNGs
Okay so Bones and I have been talking about that 77 ITM hand I posted a little while ago. Here is a hypothetical situation that we're using to try and figure it out.
You: 2000 SB: 2000 Button: 4000 Blinds 100/200 SB shows AKo and pushes. You look down and see 77. ICM says a call here is correct (+1.3%). The main reason the call is correct because of the payout weights. So here's what we were thinking. In a $22 SNG, your profit for finishing 3rd will be $18. Winning this hand will give you a 50% chance of winning the tourney, ignoring difference in skill level. So when you go heads up, you have a profit EV of $58 ((78 + 38) * .5). 45% of the time you make $18, and 55% of the time you make $58. 58/18 = 3.22, so you need to finish 3rd place a little more than 3 times to equal the profit you gain from getting heads up once. So that means to me that you only need to be 1-3.22 or better to win the hand, because getting heads up gives you the same expected profit as three third place finishes. So you ought to only need a hand that wins ~24% of the time to make the call. That would be a massive range, but in fact you need 22+,AKs to make this call profitable. That's a range that wins 57% of the time, only 6% of hands. I have to be looking at this all wrong, simply because SNGPT is slapping me around. I'd really appreciate it if someone could tell me what I'm missing, cause I think whatever it is may be the next big step towards me understanding SNGs. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Some math that\'s supposed to help me figure out SNGs
All three of you already have $40. What you are playing for now is a prize structure of $60/$20/$0.
The reason you don't take a 24% call now is that you can no matter what you have push the next hand for even more value. And if you call with a 24% hand, you will miss out on that opportunity 76% of the times. So instead of just having two outcomes (calling and winning/calling and losing) there is a third, folding, which means you get to play on. Might add that I don't use ICM or SNGPT. So I don't think in terms of +1.4% etc. Mostly because I think we are often so poor at guessing the other guys range that the numbers is at best slightly inaccurate. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Some math that\'s supposed to help me figure out SNGs
No, the correct play according to ICM is to call here. So there are two outcomes - winning or losing.
You're talking about folding against ICM because we can have a bigger edge later on. But our edge increase with 77 vs AKo is 1.1%, which is just far too big to pass up. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Some math that\'s supposed to help me figure out SNGs
[ QUOTE ]
No, the correct play according to ICM is to call here. So there are two outcomes - winning or losing. You're talking about folding against ICM because we can have a bigger edge later on. But our edge increase with 77 vs AKo is 1.1%, which is just far too big to pass up. [/ QUOTE ] With the 77, calling is correct. But once you introduce hands that have 24% against his range, surely folding is an option. |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Some math that\'s supposed to help me figure out SNGs
[ QUOTE ]
With the 77, calling is correct. But once you introduce hands that have 24% against his range, surely folding is an option. [/ QUOTE ] According to ICM, it's not that folding is an option - it's that calling ISN'T an option. Which is what I'm trying to figure out. If you need 3 3rd place finishes to make up for one heads up finish, you'd be willing to call with a hand that's a 3-1 dog, because you're getting an overlay. |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Some math that\'s supposed to help me figure out SNGs
[ QUOTE ]
According to ICM, it's not that folding is an option - it's that calling ISN'T an option. Which is what I'm trying to figure out. If you need 3 3rd place finishes to make up for one heads up finish, you'd be willing to call with a hand that's a 3-1 dog, because you're getting an overlay. [/ QUOTE ] But why would you call with a hand thats 3-1 dog when you the next hand, no matter what cards you have, will have a more +EV situation? Are you working against a time limit here? Are you really aiming for a finish distribution where you have twice as many 3rds as 1st and 2nds? I might add that I have gotten much more patient when ITM and HU lately. I have learned to fold hands I might have called with/pushed in the past. And my 1sts have gone up. Of course I still play aggressive but not uncontrolled. |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Some math that\'s supposed to help me figure out SNGs
[ QUOTE ]
If you need 3 3rd place finishes to make up for one heads up finish, you'd be willing to call with a hand that's a 3-1 dog, because you're getting an overlay. [/ QUOTE ] This is where you're going wrong, you don't need 3 3rd places to make up for one heads up. What you did wrong is you used expected profit in your calculations rather than expected payout. The $22 you invested is no longer yours, it's part of the prize pool. Using the payouts, you get E(3rd) = $40, E(HU) = ($100 + $60) * 0.5 = $80. So E(HU) = 2 * E(3rd). So 2 3rd places equates to 1 Heads Up, therefore you need to be even odds to make a call a break even play, as you'd expect. In reality, due to the overlay of the blinds, it should be correct, by ICM, to call here as slightly less than 50%. I'm not sure why this doesn't quite fit with your calculations. |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Some math that\'s supposed to help me figure out SNGs
You already have a lock on 3rd. If you win this hand do you automatically win 1st?
Also, as Freudian stated your analysis of prize structure is suspect. |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Some math that\'s supposed to help me figure out SNGs
The two main problems are, you have already paid the $22 and you have already won at least 3rd place.
You have a certain chance of half of the remaining equity, which is $80, and a certain chance of none of the remaining equity. You have to weigh this against the equity you have if you fold. If you wanted to, you could phrase the question like this: I have won $1 million dollars playing poker in my life. If I win this hand, I will have won $1,000,058. If I lose this hand, I will have won $1,000,018. |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Some math that\'s supposed to help me figure out SNGs
Just got home from church and will try to clarify:
Payouts are as follows: 1 = 30 2 = 10 3 = 0 (These are pool% numbers less the floor all players have of 3rd place money.) Your EV right now is 10.83 (for simplicity lets say 10). Ignore blinds (for simplicity) and assume that if you win you have EV of 20. Since if you fold you have EV of 10 and if you call you have a binary payout of EV0 or EV20 (with our assumptions) then your hand has to win more than 50% v. AK for this call to be profitable. What hands beat AK more than 50% of the time? Any pair. You call with any pair and you fold all others. Our assumptions are not too out of line and I think the math gives the correct answer here. Does this help? |
|
|