Jacks look good at the flop, but the betting is scary...

[Fantam]

I am not sure about this hand, but these are my thoughts:

UTG's flop raise suggests a made hand to me. Either a set or straight. I think 2 pair is unlikely with that flop.

I would 3-bet the flop. If I did have the best hand on the flop, I would want to drive out anyone drawing to a gut-shot (inside straight).

If UTG then capped the flop, I would consider it even more likely that he did in fact have a set or straight.

I would call a flop cap, but then fold to a turn bet from UTG unimproved.

This hand appears to be one of those way ahead or way behind situations, and the flop 3-bet seems to be the best way to find out.

[Nak]

On the other hand, if you can put one of your opponents on an 8, your pot equity is drastically reduced.

Here is the flop equity with one of your opponents having any 8 (except 86o-82o).

5,426,009 games 46.987 secs 115,478 games/sec

Board: 6s 9d 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 29.8037 % [ 00.29 00.00 ] { JhJd }
Hand 2: 40.9717 % [ 00.37 00.04 ] { 88, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 87s-82s, A8o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }
Hand 3: 14.6084 % [ 00.12 00.02 ] { random }
Hand 4: 14.6162 % [ 00.12 00.02 ] { random }


And here is the turn equity.

Board: 6s 9d 7c Qh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 30.1049 % [ 00.30 00.00 ] { JhJd }
Hand 2: 36.7847 % [ 00.35 00.02 ] { 88, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 87s-82s, A8o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }
Hand 3: 16.5557 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 16.5547 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { random }

Things don't look so good now. Your 3-bet certainly isn't for value, and you can't raise the turn for value either. But, if you think that your 3-bet will protect your hand (as I suggested earlier), then look what happens on the turn with only three players in.

17,318,943 games 67.807 secs 255,415 games/sec

Board: 6s 9d 7c Qh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 40.6246 % [ 00.41 00.00 ] { JhJd }
Hand 2: 40.4323 % [ 00.39 00.01 ] { 88, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 87s-82s, A8o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }
Hand 3: 18.9431 % [ 00.18 00.01 ] { random }


Now, you have a slight equity edge on the player with an 8.

Just some things to think about. Those players who advocate 3-betting as if it's totally clear-cut are being slightly obtuse.

Nak

[Nak]

[ QUOTE ]
I would want to drive out anyone drawing to a gut-shot

[/ QUOTE ]

Gutshots are probably already making a mistake if you just call, but 3-betting does help your turn equity drastically if you can get one person out.

Nak

[DMBFan23]

I would raise the turn. you were waiting for a "safe" turn card to raise, and to me that's anything but a 5, 8, T, or A. it's pretty likely on the turn that UTG has something like A9 or even 87, and I really want to protect this hand. with a big pot and 2 players left to act, my line is gonna go raise, call 3 bet because I'm drawing very live against 2 pair and the pot is huge, fold river unimproved, bet most rivers if I'm not 3 bet on turn

EDIT: assuming you didnt 3 bet the flop which is also a good plan. in fact looking at the pot size I like it more than waiting.

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
How can Hero lead the turn if he is 3rd to act? Raising the turn with just the overpair after a capped flop is spewage.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) If you 3-bet the flop, I am guessing you will have a chance to lead the turn

2) I didn't say raise the turn. If you're capped on the flop, or bet into on the turn, it's probably a calldown, unless you have to face two cold at any point.