Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible

[blackize]

Why not push both the small edges and the big ones? Besides the only good hands I got for the 75 hands that table was good were small pocket pairs.

I learned that the pot was getting jammed every hand so the implied odds went through to roof.

[slavic]

If you are saying you had several sets in 75 hands that is more analogous to having the deck hit you in the face than to pushing small edges.

As I stated in my post several people disagree with my statements, and in a tougher game I do often play small pairs when it seems that I'm not getting proper preflop odds, but there are a few things that I'm looking for.
1) I can get in cheap
2) The players will pay me off.

What you present is that it may cost me 2, 3, or 4 bets to play preflop, and the player that I expect to pay me off sufficient to compensate for these extra bets has not acted yet and may very well fold.

[Hamlet]

I agree with W. Deranged here. I think you're over-estimating your implied odds. By my calculations, there is about a 16% chance by the river that the overpair will have made its set (4 cards to hit 45/47*44/46*43/45*42/44). You will lose alot on those hands. Sometimes the board will come 4 hearts when you don't fill. Once in a while the maniac will beat your set. Even on the board you flopped, the Aces still have 4 outs (a ten screws you)

I'd be interested in seeing a showdonw win% assuming you flop a six and are against AA and a random hand. If I get a chance I'll run it on TTH.

[mosch]

[ QUOTE ]


but you don't have to take small advantages versus a maniac, he will give you plaenty of opportunities to outplay him when you have a very large edge.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds like a paraphrase of the advice that Mike Caro gives in the 7cs chapter of s/s. The thing is... if you have the financial and emotional ability to deal with the variance, there's no reason not to push small edges, too.

The worst case scenario is that the maniac gets more chips, and is able to stay in business that much longer. This isn't a bad situation, as most players play very poorly with a maniac at the table. (And the maniacs chips are always in play)

That being said, I fold this one pre-flop, as I don't see an edge... this just looks like a "gambool" play to me. Fun to do, but not profitable. Save this move for your drunken home game.

[Weebl]

FWIW,
What if any point is the cut off for pairs that are acceptable cold calls in this situation.

I figure rebump with everything TT and up.

So is 99, 88 acceptable and nothing else? Or should we rebump 99, 88 as well and muck everything else.

Cold calling does suck though, I tend to think raise or fold.

Anyone?

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW,
What if any point is the cut off for pairs that are acceptable cold calls in this situation.

I figure rebump with everything TT and up.

So is 99, 88 acceptable and nothing else? Or should we rebump 99, 88 as well and muck everything else.

Cold calling does suck though, I tend to think raise or fold.

Anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree that cold calling sucks. but i think a 3-bet is even more out of line than a call. UTG will probably cap it and even in the very best situation you are only even money against UTG and SB might beat you with his near-random hand.

[adamstewart]

<font color="red">[ QUOTE ]
UTG is a rock and raising with AK or better, my pokertracker stats on him have a VPIP of 10% over 50 hands so it is more likely that he is raising a big pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]</font>


I tried to make that part stand out, because you must have missed it while you were playing this hand!!



[ QUOTE ]
The SB is a complete maniac and caps or bets every street post flop. I cold called the raise here with position and what I thought were enormous implied odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

Be honest with yourself.... you're trying to justify a horrible call (both then and now). This read on SB does not negate your read on UTG - not even close.




Adam

[blackize]

If he has AK I am a favorite. If he has a big pair I am a 4-1 dog. I don't particularly care either way since I am playing for a set on the flop knowing that the big pair will pay me off and the maniac will go nuts.

Yes there will be times when my hand gets counterfeited or beat, but those are rare after I flop my set and the 20+BB pots I take down make up for the questionable call preflop.

[meep_42]

Also, when determining the implied odds of small PP (those that are quite unlikely to win without improvement), you should use something better than 7.5:1, as you're not continuing on many flops that don't give you a set AND you have to take into account the times your set loses (and you likely lose many bets postflop). I've seen 10:1 cited as a good rule of thumb, but am willing to bump it down to 9:1 a lot of the time, because I like to play poker.

-d

[blackize]

In this case I am not continuing on ANY flop that doesnt yield a set based on my read of UTG.

Given that 10-1 number, if I can expect to see a 20+BB pot every hand, is putting in 1BB preflop so bad? If so please explain why.