JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with your fold for pretty much the exact reasons you outlined. If UTG+1 really hadn't used all of those chips to steal or limp or anything in all the 30 hands you've seen, he's way too tight for me to love this spot. If he at least made a few position raises or called a raise now and then, I shove my chips in here with only a slight twitch. But here I just want to throw up when I shove into two people who could easily have the exact hands I'm fearing. Blech.

On a side note, does the bubble situation make you more or less inclined to mess with close spots here? If you doubled up or won this pot you'd have over 10k and could steal a lot of important blinds. But then again you can steal decently with your current stack and don't have to risk going home empty. Hmm

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]

He's no longer on the bubble, the bubble burst at 140 and they're down to 130. Payouts at this stage are usually mediocre and you need to really hit the final table to see worthwhile payouts.

As such, you should be playing to accumulate chips, not allow yourself to be whittled away to the point where you can't push people out of a pot.

I don't fault folding here maybe 20-25% of the time, but I think it's a push the other 75-80%.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't fault folding here maybe 20-25% of the time, but I think it's a push the other 75-80%.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying act randomly, where 1/4 times you fold and 3/4 you call? That seems silly since you're not worried about disguising your play.

I agree that most of the times you see this action you need to push (though it's somewhat marginal). However given this specific situation, I think a push not right.

Is there any merit in calling?

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't fault folding here maybe 20-25% of the time, but I think it's a push the other 75-80%.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying act randomly, where 1/4 times you fold and 3/4 you call? That seems silly since you're not worried about disguising your play.

I agree that most of the times you see this action you need to push (though it's somewhat marginal). However given this specific situation, I think a push not right.

Is there any merit in calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm saying that it will depend on your read of the other players, your particular play-style, etc. There are a number of factors that must be taken into consideration in these spots.

The UTG limper doesn't have to have a monster (as we saw in this case, he folded). He's short-stacked relative to the blinds and he's limping UTG. That, to me, usually indicates a donk who's squeeked into the money.

The raise from the larger stack is 4x the BB from early position. I'd put him on a hand like A/Q here, and I don't mind pushing, since our stack is large enough that he'll consider folding A/Q, and if he does call, we're slightly ahead and could become a much stronger stack ourselves.

With blinds at the 250/500 level, we don't have a lot of room to manuever and make plays with 7500 in chips. While we certainly aren't in the "red zone" at this point, it won't take long for us to be. And just moving a few places up in the money at this point isn't going to net us much extra. I'd be playing to accumulate chips, and thus taking risks (calculated risks) to achieve those stacks.

[davidross]

Interesting to hear you talk about your good Augustfalling off in September. For me it was June that was so good, when I was reading well and winning all my coin flips. Then it tailed off in July, when I felt I was still playing well but not winning as many flips, and getting unlucky a lot more. That led to a dreadful AUgust where bad luck turned into just bad play, as I busted out in the first hour again and again.

In my personal experience the cycle continues with my play improving but still running bad, (I think I'm there now) followed by a good run when the cards turn. I guess my challenge is to remove that part where I start playing bad in reaction to the lack of results.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
In my personal experience the cycle continues with my play improving but still running bad, (I think I'm there now) followed by a good run when the cards turn. I guess my challenge is to remove that part where I start playing bad in reaction to the lack of results.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think my poor start in Sept. is due mostly to poor decisions on my part. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Regards,
Woodguy

[DarrenX]

Yuck. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. Gotta fold here. You're dealing with an UTG limp and UTG+1; best case says UTG is a donk limping w/a middle pair, and UTG+1 is isolating w/AK/AQ. That's your rosiest picture, there's plenty worse. Get out.

[Jason Strasser]

Well in any setting where you respect your players I really do think you can justify a fold here. I mean if MLG limps under the gun here and then TJ Cloutier makes that 4xbb raise I can lay it down.

But on the other hand this is PP and you have JJ and 15bb where all the money is top heavy and a coinflip with overlay is not at all something to be fearful of.

-Jason

[Roman]

I shove and I hate it. If you had better reads, I could see folding here though.

[davidross]

I think given your descriptions I fold here. Sounds like a real tight table where you can steal when you need to, I wait until my hand is a little better to put in the 3rd raise.

I went out about 20 players before this with a set of aces against a set of 5's, all in on the turn, and the case 5 hit [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Only time I cna remember getting knocked out by a 1 outer.

[Roman]

[ QUOTE ]
I think given your descriptions I fold here. Sounds like a real tight table where you can steal when you need to, I wait until my hand is a little better to put in the 3rd raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

Second raise, but how do you know what the blinds are like when hes in LP? Stealing costs a good % of his stack, if he runs into a hand or two he could be crippled really fast, this is a good spot to double up with good overlay, and if he wins, he can now dominate this "tight" table.