Hand...

[Spicymoose]

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Since we don't have any information on villain I guess this is just a "default" play. Obviously, you're calling down against some guys. As a default however, I don't think that 4:1's good enough either.

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Why not? What is wrong with my analysis?

I actually didn't read your analysis the first time through (good work, btw, it shows that it's close). A couple things:

You did forget 45s (which we passed). I think you gave way too much weight to the FD 3 betting. I think you were way too conservative with the number of K combos. The weight for 3 betting with a K should be close to 100%. And this final thing, which I'm not sure about, but I think you're actually calculating the K combos wrong. Since the turn bet doesn't give us any information we should be going by how likely he was to hold a hand on the flop.

[Spicymoose]

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You did forget 45s (which we passed).

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This will lead us closer to a call down.

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I think you gave way too much weight to the FD 3 betting.

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Less then 1 in 5 times with his flush draw is way too much credit?

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I think you were way too conservative with the number of K combos.

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Considering K9 and KT may not even call, I think my estimate is pretty close to the truth.

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And this final thing, which I'm not sure about, but I think you're actually calculating the K combos wrong. Since the turn bet doesn't give us any information we should be going by how likely he was to hold a hand on the flop.

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I am pretty sure I am counting the combos right. There are only 2 possible kings he can hold, so you have to start from there in your counting. I am trying to figure out what we should do at the turn, so we can use any information up until our move.

Well, we can agree to disagree on some of that stuff, then, though now you know why I'd disagree. I'd be pretty adament about the FD not 3 betting anywhere near 16% of the time and that he can hold way more kings (he is a 34% VPIP). Thinking about it now, though, you're right about the calculation part. I muddle my math sometimes.

[DeathDonkey]

I think this is an excellent fold. One that is hard to make but everytime I call it down they have exactly what you thought anyway and you were totally dead to two outs. Just making this fold should be like negative tilt inducing for yourself.

-DeathDonkey