Another hand from the archives

[Dopey]

Im more interested in the hand reading reasons to call in this reply.

I semi-agree, but what does the button capping tell us when we don't have any reads.

His hand range at this point would most likely fall into 2 pair hands, sets and JT (with possible flush draws which the cap would tend to rule out). Does the fact he caps change his range that much if at all?

There is potential value in noting how he played this turn for future hands but how much does it affect the actual play of this hand?

Thoughts?

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Im more interested in the hand reading reasons to call in this reply.

I semi-agree, but what does the button capping tell us when we don't have any reads.

His hand range at this point would most likely fall into 2 pair hands, sets and JT (with possible flush draws which the cap would tend to rule out). Does the fact he caps change his range that much if at all?

There is potential value in noting how he played this turn for future hands but how much does it affect the actual play of this hand?

Thoughts?

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if Button caps and BB still leads, you can fold the river UI for one bet. How's that?

[Dopey]

Makes sense, as I see where your coming from. I just couldn't fold this for one bet UI.

I can potentially see the turn action playing out with hands other than JT and top set is too hard for me to get away from without a really good read. Possible a leak in my game but not one that occurs often so it's something I'll keep in mind for after I solve my bigger problems.

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Mister Z]

I don't think BB would have made a turn 3-bet without at least a set or better. For BB - JT, 33, KQ, and AQ seem like the most likely holdings - maybe AK, but I think most other hands would have been 3-bet PF. Button's range is a little wider at this point, though 2-pair seems pretty likely as he would have 3-bet most set holdings PF. I think we have to cap here for value, but I wouldn't be too shocked to see JT at SD. River action is pretty varied depending on the river card, whether button calls the turn, and if BB bets out.

I cap this turn. It is unlikely that button cold called pre-flop raise with J10 so I do not worry about waiting to see if he caps.

BB is trouble since he is more likely to have J10. There are too many other good and semi-bluffing hands that BB could have to not cap for value here, though. We also have plenty of outs to J10.

On the river, unimproved:

If BB leads, I call and fold to three bets if the river is a spade, 10, or J. Otherwise, I call three bets.

If BB checks, I bet and then play it the same way as above.

On the river, improved, oh boy...!

-Andrew

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
Makes sense, as I see where your coming from. I just couldn't fold this for one bet UI.

I can potentially see the turn action playing out with hands other than JT and top set is too hard for me to get away from without a really good read. Possible a leak in my game but not one that occurs often so it's something I'll keep in mind for after I solve my bigger problems.

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not just one bet - remember you're stuck in between two people who have appeared to made their hands. You could end up having to call in between as they raise each other. So the UI fold is not for "one bet" - the potential is there for a few more ...

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
I cap this turn. It is unlikely that button cold called pre-flop raise with J10 so I do not worry about waiting to see if he caps.


[/ QUOTE ]

He might cold call on the button w/ JTs no?

Yes, button could have J10S, but there are only 4 combinations of that hand, which is why I stated that holding as "unlikely". Think of all the other hand combinations button will raise with in this spot, and divide 4 by that number. Very small percentage I think.

-Andrew

[ErrantNight]

well i keep thinking the answer might be call but then i think: no, that's wrong. i can't see why calling is better than raising here.

cap it up. (i'm assuming since the BB is there on the turn he called the flop?). i think there's a very, very minute chance BB has JT and we're behind, but it's a possibility. but then, so is 33. i think the button almost certainly has AQ here.

BB is saying he can beat two-pair here, but I find it unlikely he has KK or QQ for obvious reasons, and there are a helluvalot more combinations of JT than 33. so perhaps that's the reason for a call. but our equity is pretty ginormous. against a river blank if we capped and assuming the button called if we're bet into perhaps we just call and go for the overcall. this seems a little weak, particularly with the button padding the pot...

so perhaps that's the argument for just calling the turn. because button might fold his AQ to a cap here (although that seems unlikely) and bb's range of hands, however unlikely, include a fair portion that beat us.

however, i'm relatively certain that with our outs to improve if behind, plus the possibility that bb is finally getting out of hand make this a cap and proceed actively on the river.

now, to read the responses.

[ErrantNight]

i don't think there's a chance in hell button caps this. and even if he does i'd be more inclined to believe he's getting donkish or hoping for a cheaper river than he's got us beat. BB is far more likely to hold JT than the button.