Have I gone completely mad? KJs hand

[1800GAMBLER]

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I like the flop raise, since it may gain you two outs in a big pot.

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You need to put a value on 'may' to work out if it's worth investing an extra SB.

[Tosh]

I think preflop is certainly more of a raise than call. Call the flop and check the turn. Errr yeah and bet the river too.

[SoBeDude]

Amazing how there are so many different responses to your hand. So I'll throw in mine as well.

Depending on the table, I'd sometimes raise 3 limpers with KJs, but much of the time I think I'd call there. But...I think a case can be made for 3 betting preflop once SEVEN people are already in for 2 bets!

You can easily peel one on the flop with two overcards and your backdoors, as the pot is huge. A raise makes no sense to me.

On the turn, with this many players in the hand, I like the bet. you're getting a huge overlay and immediate pot equity on your 3-1 shot.

Check the river? ug. I have to bet here. You need to build a side pot in case the all-in player has a better hand, and several of your opponents are going to call you with hands you can beat because the pot is huge. A river bet is +EV.

-Scott

[Saborion]

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you're getting a huge overlay and immediate pot equity on your 3-1 shot.

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3-1 shot? You assuming all 15 outs are clean? Isn't that maybe assuming a bit too much?

With 12 clean outs it's close. You need 3 callers, which I don't doubt you'll get. But if you add in a possible check-raise, you need more callers than that.

Am I wrong?

[SoBeDude]

9 clubs and 3 outs to either a J or a K (assuming one is good). so 12 outs out of 45 unseen cards. 12/33 is about 1/3 or a 2-1 shot.

But I was just looking at the flush draw alone.

Just looking at the 9 remaining clubs, we have 9/36 or 1/4, which is a 3-1 shot. Which is what I said.

The way the hand played out, I think it is very safe to assume you'll get AT LEAST 3 callers, and that you can expect more.

-Scott

[Saborion]

Either your or my math is wrong. I'd like to think it's yours, but I'll post my math and we'll see.
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9 clubs and 3 outs to either a J or a K (assuming one is good). so 12 outs out of 45 unseen cards. 12/33 is about 1/3 or a 2-1 shot.

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ust looking at the 9 remaining clubs, we have 9/36 or 1/4, which is a 3-1 shot.

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Unless I'm mistaken, aren't you suppose to do (46-12)/12 = 2.83 (you used 45 btw) and (46-9)/9 = 4.1?

[SoBeDude]

Both of our math is correct, except I used 45 instead of 46.

I round 2.83 up to 3 to make the math easier. expressed as a fraction is 1/3. If I will make something one time in three that means once I hit my hand, and the remaining 2 times I miss. Expressed as a RATIO, its a 2-1 shot.

The flush draw IS 1/4 or a 3-1 shot. (one time out of 4 you make it, 3 times u miss).

-Scott

[Ian J]

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but I would reraise the turn (can you? with that all-in?)

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The thought crossed my mind and I considered it, but it came back to me with only the call or fold buttons on, so I couldn't regardless. I probably wouldn't if I had the option though.

[Ian J]

Hi Scott,

The sole reason I raised was to possibly clean up some K or J outs. I'm not going anywhere on this flop in this sized pot, so I figured if I clear up 2 outs by making KQ or AJ (or both) fold, then I'm gaining a bunch of equity in this pot. Neither of those hands is folding the flop for one bet, so I tried to make them do it for 2.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Scott,

The sole reason I raised was to possibly clean up some K or J outs. I'm not going anywhere on this flop in this sized pot, so I figured if I clear up 2 outs by making KQ or AJ (or both) fold, then I'm gaining a bunch of equity in this pot. Neither of those hands is folding the flop for one bet, so I tried to make them do it for 2.

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I understand your thinking, but I think this is the wrong time for this play. When a table is this loose, you're just burning another small bet with little chance of it helping you win.

At the point of your raise. There are 21 SBs in the pot. AK and AJ are still going to call there getting 10-1 pot odds. So the only hand you're likely to push out is KQ, and would he really have raised preflop with KQ?

given the size of the pot, the number of opponents, and the looseness of their play, I think the raise is a mistake.

-Scott