|
|
|
|
#1
12-23-2005, 02:05 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: I think I finally learning
Hmmm... I'll repost my thoughts in a different way as to why I don't like this river bet. I think you have decent fold equity on the turn from crappy Ax hands, as they don't have odds to draw. The turn bet is good IMO.
On the river, for this bet to be profitable, he has to fold a better hand ~1/7 times. There is also the factor of him calling a worse hand, though that is nearly negligible with most opponents. With a board like this, he is going to fold a pocket pair never. He is going to fold AK practically never. He is going to fold AQ sometimes, but still not too often IMO. He will fold A7-AJ reasonably often, but definetly not always. If he is going to call a turn bet getting 6:1 with A7-AJ, I think this is often because he plans to go to showdown. On the turn, he should see that he is 1. Drawing dead 2. Dominated by a better A and drawing to 3 outs 3. Behind a PP and likely drawing to 3 outs (sometimes 6, but rarely) 4. Ahead The only one of those scenarios where is is even close to good enough to call is Ahead. If he was willing to call the turn, there is a high chance that he will call the river. You may want to argue that a lot of players aren't skilled enough to think about a hand in terms of outs like this, however, I think that it is these unskilled types that also like to showdown A high on a raggedy board. 
|
|
#2
12-23-2005, 06:39 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: I think I finally learning
Scotty,
You're giving 3/6 opponents way too much credit. It doesn't matter to them if they're holding AT and they may be dominated and don't have odds to the gutshot since it'll probably be split. They're seeing the river. At the same time, your analysis is a little off. Against a pocket pair, they're drawing to 7-10 outs, and it's not THAT rare that they're drawing to 10. I'm assuming OP is playing standard 2+2 numbers, so his 3-bet range is pretty wide. If villain has AQ-AT, he has 10 outs a decent amount of the time.
|
|
#3
12-23-2005, 05:54 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: I think I finally learning
[ QUOTE ]
You're giving 3/6 opponents way too much credit. It doesn't matter to them if they're holding AT and they may be dominated and don't have odds to the gutshot since it'll probably be split. They're seeing the river. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, I know counting outs and making correct calls would be giving them too much credit at this level. They don't know and don't care. That is also why I said that they are going to call the river with Ax UI. They don't actually put you on a hand - they are simply playing their hand and the board. They see a ragged board, and they have the high card - why not call, it's only one bet. [ QUOTE ] At the same time, your analysis is a little off. Against a pocket pair, they're drawing to 7-10 outs, and it's not THAT rare that they're drawing to 10. [/ QUOTE ] The gutshot puts a higher straight on the board, so only A7 would take it.
|
|
#4
12-23-2005, 07:30 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: I think I finally learning
I dont like the 3bet preflop because we are out of position.
I just call and very probably just give up on the flop. As you 3bet I think it is best to just give up on the turn. On the river I think it is pretty close between c/f and b/f. I honestly don`t think that an ace high that made it to the river will give up very often on a board like this.
|
|
#5
12-23-2005, 08:26 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: I think I finally learning
I just call preflop. I guess raising might be better if the limper is known to fold for two more and the button can fold A-high on the flop or turn.
I think your riverbet is fine, there are alot of draws you beat and he may folds Axhh. I think he will call with nonheart aces though, why else call the turn ? Against some players I valuebet AJ here and do get called by worse Aces.
|
|
#8
12-23-2005, 08:41 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: I think I finally learning
Yes. Logically speaking though, if he's calling the river with AJo, he's calling with AsJs after his flush draw busted, too. That's all.
And like I said, I think he has non-heart aces way more since an Ace high flush draw will almost always raise the flop.
|
|
#9
12-23-2005, 09:00 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: I think I finally learning
Looks good to me. You will fold many aces, plus an occasional ragged 2 or 3 from weak tight opponents.
I didn't read your post from a couple weeks ago but I probably don't bet most A's here. Since the button raised PF, presumably you'd only arrive at the river with an ace you were confident showing down against another A, is my thinking.
|
|
#10
12-23-2005, 09:42 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: I think I finally learning
I like it. 3bet represents AK or a big pair to most of these guys. Unlikely he connected with the flop with anything other than a flush draw.
Overpair would raise the flop here more often than not. So he's either drawing to overcards or the flush. Set raises the turn. River card didn't help him at all. Betting the river only needs to fold Ax here > 13% of the time to be +EV. nh.
|
 |
|
|
Hybrid Mode
