Burningyen's bustout hand (how would you play it?)

[Seadood228]

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Some more info for you all: if checked to, Villain would bet out with any 2 cards about 75% of the time.

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Hopefully this isn't a stupid question, but how much do you reckon he'll bet when checked to? It's hard to quantify in the heat of battle, but I suspect you have a good read on his patterns at this time.

If he bets anything around 2/3 pot and the SB folds, I'd be more tempted to call and lead at the pot on the turn regardless of what lands. This is the type of board that, if he's bluffing on the flop, has very little to no chance of improving his hand. IMO your fold equity is the same playing it this way as c/r the flop, only your chances of being reraised by a hand such as 2 pair or worse have been diminished. It also keeps the pot small should he call a checkraise on the flop and you whiff the turn.

So let's say he bets 700 on the flop, you call and the pot is now ~2500. If you lead for 1200 on the turn, you'll be putting in the same amount of chips as if you had c/r the flop, only your hand appears much stronger since this no longer looks like a straight c/r of a button bet. If he calls, you get a cheap draw. If he raises, then you can make a decision whether or not to call from there, but you'll have a much better idea what he's holding.

Personally, I think too many of us are willing to get the chips in on the flop in this situation. With 25BBs, you aren't even close to desperate, especially considering how great the structure is and the fact that you are getting around 55 hands/level. Perhaps it's just the fact that many of us are accustomed to playing a quicker structure and >20 hands/level.

The only way I could see committing more on the flop would be if the SB checkraised and then you came over the top. In this situation, I could see the CO folding a hand like a small set or 2 pair + plus the extra money put in the pot by the SB would make the gamble a lot more enticing.

[Seadood228]

I agree with BZ too.

It has nothing to do with being weak tight. Your edge doesn't exist if you are called, and there are better ways of moving him off the hand if he's holding something marginal.

We are playing ~50 hands/hr and hero has 25BBs, which is far from desperate in an event of this time. If hero gets all his chips in, he's a pretty big dog at worst, a coinflip at best. If the villian doesn't have a huge hand, there are less costly ways of stealing this pot from him unimproved.

[Seadood228]

Well said, although I'd play it a little different (and probably lose more [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]). I like your logic though.

[BZ_Zorro]

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This is a $10,000, once a year tournament.
Back to basics.

Goals in a tournament(in order):

1. Chip Accumulation


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FYP. BTW, you weak tightie.

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Just to be clear: Bet out the flop, but if he's reraising you, pushing against a stack that covers you 2x with only a coinflip seems a really bad idea at this stage of the tournament. BTW against a weak tight player or smaller stack where you have better folding equity, pushing is a great idea.

But why go all in here if a call is fairly likely after a raise? There are plenty of ways left to get chips (including stone bluffing the right situation) that don't involve taking a risk this big.

[Seadood228]

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but if he's reraising you, pushing against a stack that covers you 2x with only a coinflip

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Coinflip AT BEST.. I think hero will be much further behind if called here by this type of player.

Not worth the risk in a 5+ day tourney.

[ansky451]

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Right, so you regularly risk your whole stack on a coin flip early in a tournament? I doubt you make many final tables with that attitude.


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Zorro- you are giving horrible horrible advice. Stop thinking about tournaments like a little girl. No one ever said you should CALL all your chips off on a coinflip. We are talking about getting aggressive and putting your opponent to the test with a coinflip, so that you give yourself a second way to win this pot- by him folding. You cant just think "oh this is a 10,000 dollar tournament, I'm not ready to lose just yet." Be a f*cking man and be prepared to lose from the first hand. That is how you win tournaments. You WILL NOT WIN A 6000 PERSON TOURNAMENT WITHOUT WINNING SEVERAL COINFLIPS. You cant just think on the simple level of "I only have a draw so ill just call" Think of what your opponent first. Then realize what you have and how strong it is compared to what he has.

Despite what Norman Chad says- the early stages in tournaments are not merely about surviving. You have to take any oppurtunity you can find to get chips and build your stack so you can go as far as you possibly can. You can't win tournaments if you are afraid of taking risks.

You, are clearly afraid of taking risks.

[bugstud]

so what are you guys advocating then? Check/folding the flop?

[adanthar]

What your opponent has like 90% of the time is a hand that a)beats J high and b)that he won't fold.

He called off 2/3 of his stack (I'm assuming, could've been more) on a flush draw with an overcard showing and no pot odds. You think he's gonna fold to a CR from a guy he has covered twice over after investing a bunch of chips with *anything*?

edit: The pot's 1200 and you have 14K behind. I'm check/calling anything decent on the flop (more than enough implied odds here, like a stack's worth) and then probably checking any turn.

[ansky451]

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What your opponent has like 90% of the time is a hand that a)beats J high and b)that he won't fold.

He called off 2/3 of his stack on a flush draw with an overcard showing and no pot odds. You think he's gonna fold to a CR from a guy he has covered twice over after investing a bunch of chips with *anything*?

edit: The pot's 1200 and you have 14K behind. I'm check/calling anything decent on the flop (more than enough implied odds here, like a stack's worth) and then probably checking any turn.

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90% of the time? 66% of the time he whiffed with his random cards. If he bets when checked to him here i dont think that means that he hit the flop any more than it means he is on a stone cold bluff. The chances of him having a king are slim. if he does- good for him, but I can't see not putting him to the test at least. Check calling down is just too weak. Suppose He has Ax- and is taking a stab. by just calling you are letting HIM draw for cheap. You have by far the best hand. There is no reason to think he has a monster here.

[adanthar]

If he has Ax and the balls to fire a second barrel when a tight player calls him on a KQx board, good for him, he can have it.

His 'random' cards are not really random and don't whiff on this flop anywhere near 66%, nor does he 'always' bet them.