AK call down with turned tptk? - Page 3

lerxst337 · #21 07-05-2005, 03:28 PM

There has been alot of double speak and what if's in this thread, so I am just going to reset the pre-flop situation as MY line of thought. THIS player likely only caps with AA, KK, QQ, and AKs, right?--3 combinations of AA, 3 of KK, 9 of AK, and 6 of QQ. 1/7 you're drawing almost dead after the flop, 1/7 you are drawing to 3 outs (1 to 14, JUST BARELY odds to call), 3/7 you can chop (he's not folding the flop, and you have to risk a BB to get him to fold on the turn) and 2/7 you are drawing to 6 outs. Against this range of hands, you're way behind 4/7 of the time, and even 3/7 on the flop--that's way too expensive to raise, especially since you have to follow through on the turn. I think this is a clear fold on the flop. You only win 2 BB when he has QQ and you improve (let alone the sad possibility of what ACTUALLY happened on the river in this hand), 2 BB when you hit an ace against KK, you chop against AK, and loose 2 BB against AA (more if you follow the raising line, while he likely folds with the worst of it when he's beat with QQ--no value for raising there).

To me, this is just a classic situation of where AK actually loses money or chops when improving much of the time. Against QQ is the only time you can win.

JoshuaD · #22 07-05-2005, 03:43 PM

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since I don't think we can lay this down on the turn, wouldn't the better play be to do as mr pink has done. We are tied with one hand, and slaughtered by two other of the villian's likely holding, and we are way ahead of QQ(on the turn at least). I don't think he'd three bet JJ PF there, but I could be wrong. either way, I think we are losing the least in a very marginal situation where we are gonna lose more often then we win. I also think the fact that this villian looks incapable of folding is more of a reason not to raise

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Aw snap, I misread the read. I thought this was a "textbook LAG".

I like the way Mr. Pink played it.

I had like a 2 paragraph post typed up responding to you too, before I decided to go read over the OP and make sure I wasn't missing something. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

avisco01 · #23 07-05-2005, 03:55 PM

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villain is a 20/6/1.5 er, textbook tag - pretty ABC

raise the turn? raise the river? just call down?

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I didn't fully take into account that Villain's raising standards are a bit tight. Given this fact, its reasonable that Villain holds one of the hands that crush you, namely AA or KK. However, we hit one of our outs on the turn, why not raise? Again, I advocated raising the flop for information / free card possibilities, but I see that perhaps that would be "spewing." I do think that on the flop raising or folding is best, isn't calling usually incorrect in this spot? However, once we make our hand on the turn, I just don't understand why we don't raise with tptk. I suppose that if we're behind to AA we're trying to lose as little as possible? However, can we narrow Villain down to just AA and KK given the preflop action? I have to raise the turn in this spot. Its unfortunate that Villain got really lucky on the river but I don't think our passive play is the way to go.

pudley4 · #24 07-05-2005, 04:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
villain is a 20/6/1.5 er, textbook tag - pretty ABC

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+1 caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

River: (9.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.70 BB

yes?

raise the turn? raise the river? just call down?

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You have position - just make sure a bet goes in on the turn and again on the river.

This hand is really very simple - as has been pointed out, on the flop you're rarely tied (AK), sometimes behind (to QQ), sometimes way behind (KK) and sometimes getting crushed (AA). There is no good reason to raise the flop here. He's not folding AK (especially since we're not following up on the turn). In order for the free card to work, our opponent can't 3-bet or stop-n-go the turn. If he does this just a small percentage of the time, we're costing ourselves money.

Now, on the turn, we're in a "way-ahead/way-behind" scenario (discounting the few times we're tied with AK, which slightly decreases our EV due to the rake). In this type of scenario, raising the turn is dumb - if we're way ahead, our opponent may fold and even if he doesn't, we're unlikely to get the extra river bet out of him. If we're way behind, he'll very likely 3-bet and lead the river. So we're looking at not only winning one fewer bet when we're ahead, but also losing two more bets when we're behind.

Played perfectly.

mr pink · #25 07-05-2005, 06:13 PM

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Calling down the turn and river seem like good ideas...at that point if he's AA, KK, or (once the river hits) QQ, at least you're not spewing. Tough hand. Good post. Thanks for the discussion -- made me really think.

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aggression in the face of aggression isn't always the answer. a lot of posters on these boards are think checking or calling on any street is a crime against humanity, it's not. you seem like you're hear to learn and that's a good thing. keep posting.

Mike Gallo · #26 07-05-2005, 09:30 PM

aggression in the face of aggression isn't always the answer. a lot of posters on these boards are think checking or calling on any street is a crime against humanity, it's not. you seem like you're hear to learn and that's a good thing. keep posting.

Awesome reply Steve Buscemiboy. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

oreogod · #27 07-05-2005, 09:43 PM

I dont see the point of a raise anywhere here.

Hands Villian will have that he caps:
AA-QQ, AK (probably more likely to be suited, but count the offsuits as well). You are only beating QQ on this turn. A lot of ppl will call a 3-bet preflop with AKo, so put more emphasis on him having AKs. If u do this, AA and KK dominate the AKs possibility.

You are tied or beaten here far more often than u are ahead.

One question though: say we add another party in here on the turn, anybody who wants a call raise it? Or still call down?

EDIT: The fact that he actually had queens here, is one of the rare times u are actually ahead. Nice river there.

Also the fact u have AKo and there is a K on the turn, I think takes quite abit away from him have AK.

avisco01 · #28 07-05-2005, 10:12 PM

"aggression in the face of aggression isn't always the answer."

I don't think anyone said aggression is ALWAYS the answer, but duly noted. I was just considering an alternative way to play the hand. I didn't realize it was actually played perfectly and there is no alternative.

"a lot of posters on these boards think checking or calling on any street is a crime against humanity, it's not."

A crime against humanity? Now I know no one said that...also, I think in reference to ever calling or checking being a "crime against humanity" is UNDERSTATED... Ok, seriously speaking, I never, nor do I think anyone else, meant to imply that checking and calling is horrible all the time. I was just expressing my opinion and offering an alternative to the way the hand was played, thats all. After considering all the points in the messages that were posted recently, I now see that perhaps raising on the flop is overzealous, and raising on the turn perhaps too aggressive. I don't think raising the turn is "dumb" however as was suggested in another message. I tend to lean towards aggression post flop, especially when I hit one of my outs on the turn for instance, so that is just a stylistic thing maybe. I can see the benefits of both raising and calling in this situation. Mostly, I'm just trying to learn, like everyone else here, and the only way to do that is to express my thoughts. By no means was I implying that you played the hand "wrong" or anything like that, I apologize if it came off that way, I was just looking to get some feedback on the benefits / pitfalls of raising on either street as opposed to calling down.

Mike Gallo · #29 07-05-2005, 10:51 PM

Avi,

Welcome aboard. Chill dude. Now I know no one said that...also, I think in reference to ever calling or checking being a "crime against humanity" is UNDERSTATED... Its an inside Two Plus Two joke. DS once replied to a post something to the effect of...not raising there is a crime against humanity".

Welcome aboard.

mr pink · #30 07-05-2005, 11:01 PM

in no way was my reply in direct reference to anyone who posted in this thread. i was just pointing out something about the forum, and how when players starting out think "Tight/Aggressive" means betting and raising recklessly and then come up with reasons for it after they raise... such as "free card" or "to see where i'm at". basically, they know aggression is good but they're not sure where to apply it and when to turn it off. i wasn't taking a shot at you or anyone else.

as mike said, welcome to the forums. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]