How much THEORETICAL money did I lose here? - Page 3

ActionBob · #21 07-08-2005, 02:51 PM

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What hand(s) are you putting this opponent on given the uncharacteristically passive way he played the flop?

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Please explain to me the art of putting a 49/24 opponent on a hand in this spot. You pick your likely hand you've come up with, then I'll name about 73 more possiblities he could play this way.

I'm certainly not saying to just randomly pound at this opponent but your thinking here IMO is simply ridiculous.

-ActionBob

JimmyV · #22 07-08-2005, 02:59 PM

"You pick your likely hand you've come up with, then I'll name about 73 more possiblities he could play this way."

I wish you would! And please note that you've gotta name hands a person who likes money even a little bit will raise preflop and call a turn bet with.

I think these loose players exist in the 30/60 only because they have some inkling of postflop hand values. And they push mediocre hands on the flop so they can get away from them on the turn. A flop check-call is an alarming thing for these cats to do.

I continue to maintain, despite the scorn much of this board holds for the average opponent (aka source of income), that hand reading is a great thing to be able to do. It's the source of the only edge I might have against you other good players; and, I'm noticing more and more, it makes me weak at the shorthanded tables (but the hand in question happened at a full table).

Flame away, with substance.

Cheers,

JimmyV

highlife · #23 07-08-2005, 02:59 PM

just because your read was correct does not mean your play was optimal.

basing decisions purely on reads (highly suspect one in this case) with big hands against players this loose in an online game is a much larger mistake than you realize.

you give your opponent, and also yourself in fact, too much credit in this hand.

ActionBob · #24 07-08-2005, 03:17 PM

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I wish you would! And please note that you've gotta name hands a person who likes money even a little bit will raise preflop and call a turn bet with.

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Yeah those 49/24 players obviously like money. I can't even believe I'm having this discussion. Lets see, hands a 49/24 player might raise preflop and call a turn bet with: 22, 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, A4, AT, AQ, AK, AJ, AT QT, KT, etc etc etc. Of course some of these he may or may not have bet the flop with, but we just need to come up with a *range* of hands he can have here.

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I think these loose players exist in the 30/60 only because they have some inkling of postflop hand values. And they push mediocre hands on the flop so they can get away from them on the turn. A flop check-call is an alarming thing for these cats to do.

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I don't think its all that alarming. When players get 3 bet many times they can go into a check call mode even after flopping decent hands. Sure, not always but its certainly not uncommon.

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I continue to maintain, despite the scorn much of this board holds for the average opponent (aka source of income), that hand reading is a great thing to be able to do. It's the source of the only edge I might have against you other good players; and, I'm noticing more and more, it makes me weak at the shorthanded tables (but the hand in question happened at a full table).

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IMO, hand reading (in the sense you are trying to do it) is probably the most overrated (and I'd say sometimes bordering ridiculous) part of playing limit holdem. To try to pick a specific hand an opponent has, especially one that plays this loose, is silly. "Hand reading" should be for ranges of hands (very large ranges for many players) then you should play appropriately against that overall range of hands.

-ActionBob

JimmyV · #25 07-08-2005, 03:33 PM

I think all the hands you listed except A4 and POSSIBLY AQ play the flop much more aggressively.

On the other hand, my turn check is definitely a mistake against 88; but on the other hand again, TT and JJ are not out of the question.

I take your point about this player's looseness; but it's still a relatively small n and a preflop raise under the gun is very different from a call with an EMP poster.

Good post though. This thread turned into a real discussion after all!

JimmyV

DcifrThs · #26 07-08-2005, 04:31 PM

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any pocket pair.

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Will he call a turn bet with it? Doubtful. Whereas a check here gets me a river call from such a hand, or a check-raise I can happily call if he spikes a set. And it gives me a free card for the board to pair, getting me 3 or 4 bets on the river if my QK read happens to be right.

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jimmy,

his stats are freaking 49/24!!! why are you trying to put him on a hand??? i've seen people with those stats call down w/ Khigh under more pressure than you put this guy under.

he can literally have any pair, Q9, 9T, A3 or whatever the bottom pair was, AT, whats his ag factor? and those are just some random hands that he'd have to have for you to beat if he were decently logical. he's not...so he can have all sorts of crap! my 1bb guess was based on him being a thinking player...i think you lost a LOT more
against this guy.

-Barron

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A fair point about him calling with junk, and I'll admit that A4 falls into this category. And the more I look at the river play I commit myself to by checking the turn the more likely it seems that I cost myself sklanskybux.

But note that this hand involved an UTG raise. Q9-type hands seem very unlikely -- and note that 2 of the 4 hands you listed involved opponent having the case 9.

If my analysis about the pocket pair holds up then I still think this is a solid way to play the hand. There's los tmore ways for this guy to have KQ than A4 under the gun. Where's Tommy to back me up?

Anyone else have reads?

JimmyV

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im really perplexed...

sticking to and defending your actions on this hand lead me to believe you really would rather "play well" than earn money. the guy plays 50% of his hands and you're trying to use logic and outlandish stuff like that in order to put him on a hand. it is absolutely terrible to play this way. tommy can come on here and say all he wants but people who play 50% of their hands and raise 25% can have WAYYYYYYYYY worse than Q9 utg. F*CK, people do it with 64o with lower vpip and pfr than this guy.

and just the fact that you acknowledged he *could* have some of those hands i made up means that you're read isn't correct. it would have to be correct 100% of the time fo ryou to play this way AND have it be optimal.

those are my final thoughts and if you still choose to not raise your set then enjoy.

-Barron

DcifrThs · #27 07-08-2005, 04:32 PM

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Less than i would have lost i would have bet the turn. So i would have lost one more bet.

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You would have lost two more, since he would have check-raised. But you're being results-oriented: note that I was asking about THEORETICAL money, independent of results.

Someone said above that I was being results-oriented in pointing out the results. But I was just pointing out the read that I had made before the showdown.

JimmyV

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fine, post your read. but leave the results out...unless you WANT a biased thread...which you didn't get anyways.

-Barron

DcifrThs · #28 07-08-2005, 04:37 PM

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I think all the hands you listed except A4 and POSSIBLY AQ play the flop much more aggressively.

On the other hand, my turn check is definitely a mistake against 88; but on the other hand again, TT and JJ are not out of the question.

I take your point about this player's looseness; but it's still a relatively small n and a preflop raise under the gun is very different from a call with an EMP poster.

Good post though. This thread turned into a real discussion after all!

JimmyV

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the only reason its a discussion is because you're arguing the passive side. everybody else is trying to talk some sense into you.

and JJ and TT are 100% impossible...he would cap those every single time no question preflop.

-Barron

Senor Choppy · #29 07-08-2005, 11:07 PM

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop:3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB raises, JimmyV 3-bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, JimmyV bets, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, JimmyV checks, MP2 checks.

River: (7.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, JimmyV raises, MP2 folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

Results below:
SB has 9d 9s (three of a kind, nines).
JimmyV has Qh Qd (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: BB wins 11.50 BB.

roy_miami · #30 07-08-2005, 11:48 PM

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In any case I think opponent would have donkbet or c-r'd the turn with his big draw

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If you don't see this as a golden opportunity to gain 3 bets then you are hopeless. He may checkraise you with a naked Q...