AK vs agg EP playalong

[Guruman]

no shiznit man!

[n dynamite]freakin IDIOT! Gosh![/n dynamite]

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, why the [censored] is he scared of a 3 flush with 10 outs on the off chance he's behind, yet bets into a river 4 flush? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Edit: And how the [censored] does he have 3 of a kind aces? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. What are the real results?

[Guruman]

cross my heart and hope to die. he had AA

[MrWookie47]

Oh. Just regular AA, not a set. And no frush? I hope you made a note.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, why the [censored] is he scared of a 3 flush with 10 outs on the off chance he's behind, yet bets into a river 4 flush? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]


[/ QUOTE ]

Clarkmesiter.

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I agree with Tredwel, might as slow down since we're either chopping with him and don't want to knock out MP2, or we have him badly crushed , or he has us badly crushed. There's always the offchance he has something like A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but other outcomes are alot more likely.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't want to rain on your parade but here's some food for thought.

If you beleive MP2 isn't a complete fish and understands the very basic odds. On the flop he calls SB's 3 bet (or 2 cold). Let's assume he knows Hero is going to call or cap (based on the action); he's getting 2:20 on a Hero call or 3:23 on the Hero cap (more likely). I have to put him on a flush draw to stay in.

That being the case.
If Hero and small blind are halving, no spades between them.
MP2 is 42% to make his hand on the FD.[9\43,9\42)
If SB holds 1 spade.
MP2 is 38% to make his hand [8\43,8\42]

MP2 has an equity edge and is actually making money from you guys.


The absolute best case scenario you could hope for is SB AQs, MP2 23s.
SB has overplayed severely and MP2 is drawing dead.(not including runner, runner scenarios)
SB still has 33% chance of making his hand [7\43,7\42] which still makes his value betting\semi-bluffing the flop correct.Right?

The only two players who are losing at this point are Hero and MP2. If you put MP2 on a FD, he's only losing out to the bigger FD (highly unlikely based on the action).
AND if you can't put yourself on a better that 50% chance of beating SB [I don't know whether you can], is this a case for folding TPTK?

I don't know...I'm just speculating. Interesting hand.

DAMN. I wish I'd got this in sooner.

[thesharpie]

MP2 doesn't have to have a flush draw here.

And are you asking if we should fold if we don't have a 50% chance of having the best hand? No way since the pot isn't 0.

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 doesn't have to have a flush draw here.

And are you asking if we should fold if we don't have a 50% chance of having the best hand? No way since the pot isn't 0.

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Yes I am. A 50% chance of beating SB.

If you're not beating SB +50% of the time and 100% sure that MP2 has FD (This is the only thing in doubt) - Yes, you should fold.

IMO Here's why. The pot is completely made up of only SB, Hero and MP3's money, other the 2SB. This is eaten up in rake. So everyone's square. Everyone's donation = Fair Share 33%.
Now we assume that MP2 is on a FD (okay, it's in doubt) and we are beating SB only 50% of the time.
As demonstrated in the last post. If SB has 1 spade. MP2 now wins this pot 38% of the time. Leaving Hero and SB 62% wins. But you only win that 50% of the time = 31% wins and a -2% EV. That's not even taking into consideration SB's runner, runner flush which will happen 3% of the time (now -3.5%EV)[MP2 loses on this too].
And if you say that SB has no spades. MP2 now takes down the pot 42% of the time leaving you and SB only half of 58% wins each or 26% (-7%EV)

Now I'm not doubting the maths here (unless someone shows me otherwise). What I'm asking is how UNSURE of a FD for MP2 do I have to be or how often do I need to beat SB to make a fold NOT correct.

I'm going to answer my own question.

If I'm beating SB only 50% (who has no spades) I need only be 73% (33\45) sure MP2 has a FD before a fold is correct.
If I'm 100% sure MP2 has a FD I need to beat SB 57% of the time and be 100% sure he doesn't have a spade.


Obviously if the figures are outside these then it's an easy call. Also if there is any more dead money in the pot. But this is a fairly unique situation.

I could be completely *$#@ed here but I think I'm right for once.

[Guruman]

kwazzie:

where exactly are intending us to fold? On the flop?

I don't think I can bring myself to check through the turn, and on the river mp2 folded before action came to us. If I fold the river, it has to be because I believe that sb drew out a flush on me. mp2 has nothing to do with it.