QQ multiway with overcard on flop

[easypete]

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Let's make an assumption that your 4 opponents remaining after the bet by BB are part of the "any ace" crowd.

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This is false. You have 5 opponents on the flop and should count all of them. Yes, the player who folds the flop won't hold an ace, but the likelyhood that one of the 4 players calling does hold an ace goes up as they call.

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Yeah... ok... they will call with anything, doesn't mean ace.

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You will be good 41% of the time here. And with no pf action, you can rule out a few of the A holdings, like AA, AK, AQ, and some AJ... so your % increases. Also, you can rule out some garbage aces if there are good players in. That also increases your chances.

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You should rather increase the chance that somebody holds an ace when playing microlimits. Many will call with any ace...

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First... I shouldn't have subtracted from 1 again... you're good 60% of the time here.

Second I included "any ace" I ruled out the big hands, because there is more of a tendency to raise these hands (which didn't happen pf or on the flop). So, I feel that you will be good about 70% or the time here.

[easypete]

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This is false. You have 5 opponents on the flop and should count all of them.

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If they are part of the any ace crowd, they won't fold an ace here. Therefore, they don't have an ace.

[easypete]

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Why?

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Because....

Your math was a little too simplified.

At first, I was analyzing situations like this. I spent about 3 months in the probability fourm learning how to calculate this. Spend some time there, it's well worth the trip.

[easypete]

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easypete, I think you played that hand perfectly. I think it's unfortunate that JJ had to win, because the next time you're in that situation you're more likely to lose some money.

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Thanks... I don't think it's unfortunate. I would fold in that situation 99.9% of the time.

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Same thing happened to me pot. Huge pot, I have the straight, and it's multiway. A flush card comes in that also pairs the board and I bet, it gets raised, reraised, and then someone cold calls three bets. I fold. No flush, no boat. A pair takes it down.

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Happens. If you don't make incorrect laydowns, you are not playing correctly. I fold there too.

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Twilight zone. It hurt and for a long time I always wanted to believe my opponents just decided to raise me for the hell of it when they had bottom pair.

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They don't do it for the hell of it. They do it, because the board is scary and they can get someone to fold a better hand. This is pretty common at 2/4 and higher. You have to get used to it.

[Nick Royale]

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At first, I was analyzing situations like this. I spent about 3 months in the probability fourm learning how to calculate this. Spend some time there, it's well worth the trip.

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I will. I realise that you should count the folded cards from the player unseen.

[Nick Royale]

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Second I included "any ace" I ruled out the big hands, because there is more of a tendency to raise these hands (which didn't happen pf or on the flop). So, I feel that you will be good about 70% or the time here.

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I still believe you should be more aware about Aces when playing micro, though...

[easypete]

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At first, I was analyzing situations like this. I spent about 3 months in the probability fourm learning how to calculate this. Spend some time there, it's well worth the trip.

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I will. I realise that you should count the folded cards from the player unseen.

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True...

Maybe I should have made the adjustment in the possible starting hand combinations and number of cards remaining, since he did fold 2 cards on flop (he wouldn't fold an ace 999 times out of 1000).

45 cards remaining.

3*42 = 126 combinations of starting hands w/ an Ace.

C(45,2) = 990 starting hand combinations (total w/ 45 cards remaining).

126/990 = 0.127 (% one player has it)

P(not) = 0.872 (% one player doesn't have it)
P(not)^4 = 0.580 (% 4 players don't have it)

You're good 58% of the time.

Do you agree with that?

[zuluking]

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At first, I was analyzing situations like this. I spent about 3 months in the probability fourm learning how to calculate this. Spend some time there, it's well worth the trip.

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I will. I realise that you should count the folded cards from the player unseen.

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True...

Maybe I should have made the adjustment in the possible starting hand combinations and number of cards remaining, since he did fold 2 cards on flop (he wouldn't fold an ace 999 times out of 1000).

45 cards remaining.

3*42 = 126 combinations of starting hands w/ an Ace.

C(45,2) = 990 starting hand combinations (total w/ 45 cards remaining).

126/990 = 0.127 (% one player has it)

P(not) = 0.872 (% one player doesn't have it)
P(not)^4 = 0.580 (% 4 players don't have it)

You're good 58% of the time.

Do you agree with that?

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Jesus Christ! 1+1 still equals 2 ya? I'm so fcuking confused.

[easypete]

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Second I included "any ace" I ruled out the big hands, because there is more of a tendency to raise these hands (which didn't happen pf or on the flop). So, I feel that you will be good about 70% or the time here.

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I still believe you should be more aware about Aces when playing micro, though...

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I should be more aware of 3's also with a 33 on the flop? I've been fairly successful not worrying about aces. They happen... I'm not going to play weak around them. If I have JJ and I 3-bet from the SB and 5 see the flop with an ace on it... I'm betting. I'm not going to c/f.

In the case of this hand as posted by Wario, To call down from the flop, you only have to be right 1 in 10 times (or close to it). You will be right way more than 10% of the time here... trust me.

[easypete]

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1+1 still equals 2 ya? I'm so fcuking confused.

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There will be a Louisiana Board of Public Education post later after I find an illustrator [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]