10/20 NL hand

[ML4L]

Hey caesar,

[ QUOTE ]
I don't particularly enjoy getting most of my money in when I'm dead with no way to win the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Neither does anybody. But, it does happen from time to time. The fact that this is one of those times doesn't mean that your line was poor...

I maintain that, given the opponent that you described and the depth of the stacks, betting the turn is FAR worse than checking (and usually raising). I maintain this despite the fact that you will be drawing dead a decent chunk of the time that he calls the check-raise. So, just ignore that bad feeling inside. Drawing dead happens.

I don't have time now, but if I get a chance, I'll try to give a more detailed explanation of why checking the turn is likely best here...

Better luck next time.

ML4L

[jcaesar]

ML, hope to hear from you soon because I'd really like to hear your explanation.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I like the flop, although you could have raised it more and it would still be ok by me.

I don't like the double check-raise on the turn tho. After you already check-raised the flop, and the scare care now hits, he bets after you check anyway. That should tell you something. I prefer betting out the turn after I check-raise the flop. If he then raises you on the turn (after you check-raised the flop, then bet the turn) you might be able to get away from the hand.

al

[ML4L]

Hey caesar,

OK, here are my thoughts. First, let me state that this is a "lesser of two evils" situation. Once that spade hits, you're in a bad spot. Let's see where you do best...

If you bet, how much do you bet? Let's say that you make a smallish bet, like $400. That's an amount that lets you get away from your hand. But, the catch is, against a good player, you are going to get raised here by some hands that you still beat. A set might raise, as might a hand like KQ with a spade, etc. For whatever reason, this guy felt confident that you didn't have a flush... So, if you're making a "feeler" bet, I think that you can get as good of a read on his hand by checking as by betting. Additionally, a smallish bet might give him a decent price to draw if he has any of those hands. And, on the river, you are at an even bigger risk of laying down the winner, depending on what hits (you CANNOT auto-fold here against a good player when the 4th spade comes).

OK, what about a bigger bet? Drawing hands don't have the price to draw, and you are less likely to be bluff-raised because of the bet size relative to the amount of money still behind. But, here, you are committing a huge chunk of your stack. I'd be hard-pressed to bet $700 and fold for $900 more. Plus, again, you can't be 100% sure that he has a flush when he raises. So, all the money goes ends up going in, just as in a check-raise.

Now, what if you check the turn? Maybe he makes a pot-committing bet with a worse hand? That is good. Maybe you get a fairly reliable read and can make a great laydown without losing money as you would with a "feeler" bet? That is good. Maybe you decide to just call a smallish bet and reevaluate on the river? That is good. Maybe he has a trashy hand that he wouldn't call a dime with but might bet? That is good. All in all, I think that he is more likely to make a "mistake" if you check to him than if you come out firing. Yes, if he has a flush and you end up check-raising, he gets it all. But, if you lead out, he might get it all anyway. Or, you might make a bad laydown in a pretty big pot...

It would be one thing if you could fold on the turn every time you are raised and never make a bad laydown. But, I don't think you can. Not against that kind of player on that board.

So, here's the thing. When it comes down to it, I don't know if a raise, call, or fold is best after you check. That comes down to a read and lots of other stuff that it's tough for people to comment on. But, a check gives you options and puts you in a (relatively) more comfortable spot. If you feel that the player would bet a decent range of hands here, many of which you do not want to see the river, you go ahead and raise. Pot is big, and not but so much money left to bet.

Again, the possibility of drawing dead and being out of position makes this a pretty miserable situation. But, checking is CLEARLY the better option than betting, IMHO.

Hope this helps. If anyone would like to continue the debate, I'd like to read a well-thought out argument as to why betting is correct here. But, I don't forsee there being one... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

ML4L

[Nero]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry for the double post, but why do you like the checkraise with my lack of spade outs? Seems to me it would've been better if I had a chance to improve to a better hand on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

I essentially agree with most of ML4L's thoughts here. Im not looking to improve on the river here, im looking to charge any lone spade the max. I don't think you can bet and fold to a raise in this spot, and you make more money when ahead by checkraising.

[turnipmonster]

nice post, mike. basically you're saying you win in this situation a lot more often when it goes check (bet) raise than when it goes bet (get raised) and call.

--turnipmonster

[cero_z]

Hi ML4L,
Yours is an excellent post! I think you really hit upon it when you said,
[ QUOTE ]
It would be one thing if you could fold on the turn every time you are raised and never make a bad laydown. But, I don't think you can. Not against that kind of player on that board.


[/ QUOTE ]

caesar, you'd be feeling great about your play, had you led out and folded to a raise, only to be graciously shown the spades. Or, you'd feel pretty good if he just quietly raked the pot, as you would assume you made a good play. But tough players look for spots like this (a lead bet on the turn) against other tough players, whom they know are capable of big folds.

[JohnnyF]

And I check behind you getting a free draw to my ace of spades . . .

I really like making a bet here on the turn since letting your opponent have a free draw to a spade or to AQ or AJ or a set seems like a pretty weak play. If you face a big raise you can make a decision then, but I'd hate to let my opponent go runner-runner for free.

Best of luck - J

[ML4L]

Hey Johnny,

Yes, you clearly risk a free card. But, pointing out a single weakness in checking doesn't necessarily mean that betting is correct. What amount might you bet? And are AQ and AJ likely holdings given the action? And, IMO, opponent's quick call with his ten-high flush means that he was fairly certain that he wasn't up against another flush. If he knew that caesar didn't like the spade, might he semibluff instead of taking a free card...

Again, you are in a bad situation. Checking is "less bad" than betting here, given the stack sizes, his read on his opponent, and his opponent's likely hands...

ML4L

[cornell2005]

im way late in responding to this post, but c/r the turn definently seems the way to go given the board and your opponent.