2knl on party, bluff it up

[Richie Rich]

[ QUOTE ]
He has 4 ace outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
Since any nine would complete his OESD, hero has at least 8 outs. Maybe more.


[ QUOTE ]
And the 5 means it's highly unlikely Villain has 55. It was already unlikely he had QQ/JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero stated that he thinks villain is most likely holding 55 or QJ, so your first sentence is incorrect. Although the 5 on the turn makes it much less likely he just picked up quads. And the second sentence is probably true, but not 100%.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Win 980, lose 2000. 1 combo of 55, 9 QJ, 6 QQ, 6 JJ. So if he will play only QJ/55 this way, then you have

EV = [9*980-2000]/10 = +682

If he will mix in JJ then you have

EV = [9*980-6*2000-2000]/16 = -324

If he'll only mix in JJ x proportion of the time, you have

EV = [9*980-6x*2000-2000]/[10+6x]

Setting EV = 0, you get x = 56.7%. So he can mix in JJ 56% of the time and your push is still +EV.

The bigger issue, however, IMO, is the fact that he is probably pretty unlikely to min check/raise top two here. At least not 100% of the time. And he also may CALL with QJ occasionally further decreasing your EV.

I think these assumptions are VERY hypothetical, but this should be good practice for me for doing some EV calc... let me know if I make a mistake.

You are risking $1580 to win $1220. Thus, you need this bluff to work about 57% of the time.

There are 3 ways for him to have QJs, 3 ways for JJ, and one 55. Assuming he has one of these hands and will only fold if he has QJs, that means he only folds 3/7 of the time, assuming he always limps with JJ. To solve for the % of the time he's allowed to limp with JJ to have the bluff be correct, let's call that percentage 'p'. Then we have .57 = 3/(3p+4). Solving for p gives .42. So, given these assumptions, the bluff is good as long as he is holding JJ less than 42% of the time.

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has 4 ace outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
Since any nine would complete his OESD, hero has at least 8 outs. Maybe more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I can count outs. I was informing the guy who overlooked the ace outs, who incidentally has totally edited his post now.



[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And the 5 means it's highly unlikely Villain has 55. It was already unlikely he had QQ/JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero stated that he thinks villain is most likely holding 55 or QJ, so your first sentence is incorrect. Although the 5 on the turn makes it much less likely he just picked up quads.

[/ QUOTE ]

He stated that on the flop, before the 5 peeled. You basically contradicted yourself in two sentences.

[Prevaricator]

[ QUOTE ]
I think his hand range is a bit larger than just QJ and 55. Limping and calling a raise UTG and playing the flop and turn in such a manner is also possible w/ AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ. Im not saying these are the most likely but to say he only has one of those three hands for a EV calc is kinda dumb. Is this guy so tight that he will only call this turn raise w/ a set?? Thats a better question.
-JP

[/ QUOTE ]

AA and KK I would say highly unlikely, but good point, AQ is possible too, although I don't think he check minraises the flop like that. The way he played the hand, pausing after i bet and then minraising reads to me like a hand that beats top pair. I think including only the hands I specified for the EV calc is still worthwhile because it gives us a general idea of how many combinations he has to fold in order for the play to be correct.

[ QUOTE ]
Win 980, lose 2000. 1 combo of 55, 9 QJ, 6 QQ, 6 JJ. So if he will play only QJ/55 this way, then you have

EV = [9*980-2000]/10 = +682

If he will mix in JJ then you have

EV = [9*980-6*2000-2000]/16 = -324

If he'll only mix in JJ x proportion of the time, you have

EV = [9*980-6x*2000-2000]/[10+6x]

Setting EV = 0, you get x = 56.7%. So he can mix in JJ 56% of the time and your push is still +EV.

The bigger issue, however, IMO, is the fact that he is probably pretty unlikely to min check/raise top two here. At least not 100% of the time. And he also may CALL with QJ occasionally further decreasing your EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think these numbers are right. The pot was $870 on the turn, now it's $1220 after the $350 bet. Where does the 980 come from? Also, not all of that $2K is still in his stack.

[TheWorstPlayer]

That's true. I should stop posting EV calcs from work when I'm rushed. Replace with correct numbers and yield correct results. I'll do it later if no one else does it first. My last point still stands, though, that this calculation is probably not really that relevant.

[tdomeski]

I think someone once said (regarding bluffing), "don't bluff to try and make your opponent make a big laydown, bluff when you sense weakness."

I think this quote applies here, I mean honestly you are saying he either has QQ, JJ, 55, or QJ. He will NEVER lay down the first 3 and will probably rarely (30% maybe?) lay down QJ.

Pick a better spot.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
Although the 5 on the turn makes it much less likely he just picked up quads

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious if you even know how to work how much less likely! Impress us Richie!

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious if you even know how to work how much less likely! Impress us Richie!

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, saw that you replied and was hoping you would have some interesting commentary on this hand.