99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?

[istewart]

I'd like to say first that it looks like a check/fold to me but I can see arguments otherwise.

Second of all won't one of two things happen?

1. We bet, he raises. Our hand is protected but we're drawing to two outs and need to fold.

2. We bet and everyone calls still getting odds to draw to gutshots, overcards, 5-out draws, etc. It seems we will be betting while drawing to two outs (or dead if JT and AA are out) far too often for this bet to be +EV.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
it's either bet/fold or check/fold. assuming villain caps preflop with AK, it's far more likely that he has that than a AKs or AKo. if he has JJ or TT, or they're out there, any combination of betting/calling at this point may force them out. but really, the point is to prevent AK from drawing for free. if you're raised, easy fold. if you're called, easy check on the river (and the only person that should reasonably have a Q after it's checked to you on the turn is, perhaps, UTG). it's a big pot, do everything you can to win it. here, that means not offering infinite odds on the turn to hands with outs against you. on the flop, with two cards to come and offering odds for everyone to call you with anything, there's no point.

i had originally been ok with the turn check, and i'm willing to hear argument that it's preferable, but the more i've analyzed this hand, the more clear it becomes that a turn bet is best.

[/ QUOTE ]

your last paragraph should stand as a monument. so many times threads get started and perpetuated as a "who's right and who's wrong pissing contest. I, for one, read posts and get a quick gut reaction on how to play, many times using a stream of consciousness type approach. It puts me to the test as to whether my gut and reading ability stands up when at the tables in real time. To be forced to confront your gut reaction with scientific scrutiny is quite instructive. We must be able to realize better plays when confronted with the logic of same. Thank you.

[@bsolute_luck]

i can't see how people can suggest calling that river based on how the hand was played and what you put villains' both preflop and flop. that is, unless you think UTG is cold calling all that PRF betting with 77/55/33 or has A8 or something here on the river.

[ErrantNight]

the fact that the turn was checked through and the river is a blank (and an undercard to our pair) means UTG doesn't have to have a Q. he might, but the range of his hands is wide open. betting the turn would help solve this equation.

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
i can't see how people can suggest calling that river based on how the hand was played and what you put villains' both preflop and flop. that is, unless you think UTG is cold calling all that PRF betting with 77/55/33 or has A8 or something here on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

given the turn action, utg can easily be construed as taking a shot at the pot. after all, noone has shown any aggression postflop.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i can't see how people can suggest calling that river based on how the hand was played and what you put villains' both preflop and flop. that is, unless you think UTG is cold calling all that PRF betting with 77/55/33 or has A8 or something here on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

given the turn action, utg can easily be construed as taking a shot at the pot. after all, noone has shown any aggression postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

that may be true and obviously my guess of hands that he would have to have to bet this river was true: 33. in this case i was mistaken by the "fold suggestion", but my turn donkbet was full of wisdom [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]